stewacide said:
The PSX won because Sega and Nintendo (and 3DO) completely dropped the ball on specs, price, launch-date... once it became obvious the incumbents weren't going to deliver everyone latched onto Sony.
Similarly MS and Sony have simply handed it to Nintendo this go. Their systems are vastly over-speced and overpriced: they're going after the same hardcore margin of the market while Nintendo grabs the mainstream. MS and Sony became obsessed with topping each other, and believed (wrongly) the market would follow them, while Nintendo played to where the market actually was.
Its not that simple with Saturn, PSX and N64... Sega pissed off its fans by releasing Saturn right few months after releasing 32X to Mega Drive, so besides they were pissed, many who bought 32X, could not afford Saturn at the start. PSX gained some gap and few good games, because of poor Saturn sales (3rd parties might have had better support for Saturn, if it would have sold more), so many Sega fanboys bought PSX besides Saturn, when they could afford a new console.
N64 was too late to market, Sony was already too far ahead in sales. Also it had much cheaper media, and finally the FF7 for PSX, told that Square is supporting PSX, instead of N64. And finally PSX was a trend item and as every salesman knows; people are like Lemmings when it comes to buying products.
Piracy was one reason, why PSX got so popular, it was easy to copy a game with CD-burner to your modified PSX.
Oh, and N64 was more powerful and cheaper than PSX, Saturn was released earlier with the same price.
When 360 was released, i thought that Micro$oft is this time knowing what it was doing. Now i know that theyre not... M$ was planning a strategy, that they have sold enough units when competitors release their consoles, and they have decent gap and by that time 360 makes profit.
Now M$ is in one way at the point, where they wanted Sony to be: chasing. First mistake M$ made, was right after 360 release, they announced, that 360 will be updated with HD-DVD drive, so everyone was waiting for updated 360, and did not dare to buy "the old one" (yes, that one Bill Gates comment outdated 360 at its start). Second mistake: they are trying to catch up with PS3 with "what else it can do besides gaming", they should be chasing Nintendo, with abilities for gaming, even better for keeping their own way.
Now we have 3 consoles, of which one is "something for everyone, but the price for few", one for "people who wants to play games, with price for everyone" and one, which "doesnt know what its all about and what it will be".
Nintendo has the most on its targeted group.
Pricecuts. Wii has 50(enter currency here) higher price because resellers wanted more money out of it, so good sales should convince them, that they could make better profits with less price (and Nintendo also), but Wiis price wont drop, until they can produce as much as its demand is.
360 doesnt really make money, and even M$ cant lose money too much. I dont know, that is M$ making money with 360 at the monent, but looking at how PS3 exclusives are porting to 360, i bet that developers can have all the money, that the ported games make (=M$ doesnt charge license fees).
PS3 really cant have a pricecut either, before Sony can produce PS3 cheaper and this can happen when people buy enough PS3s, although, without lower price, people wont buy them much.
So, Nintendo has the best chances for a "massive" pricedrop.
The Fad. PS1 was a fad, PS2 was a fad and now Wii is a fad. True, people are like lemmings. Its like an avalanche, if there is enough snow sliding down a hill, all the snow starts sliding with it. When Wii comes trendy enough and market penetration reaches critical point, you can not stop selling it. Fad will fade, but is it because next generation comes, or will Remote lose its interest? Its not impossible in any ways that 360 or PS3, as well as Wii, gets the fad finally.
At this moment Wii has The Fad.
Longevity. PS2 outsells PS3 and 360 at the moment. Why? Because its massive penetration (by number of consoles and number of titles), people are like lemmings and still PS2 gets new games, so its not dead yet. If Wii gets popular enough, it will keep selling (and will be produced) after next generation is released, no matter how outdated the console will be by then. If PS3 or 360 cant sell enough, they dont have future after next-gen release, no matter how up-to-date consoles are at the time, they still will be old.
Looking at Wiis sold and titles announced, looks like Wiis lifespan could be easilly ten years.
Production issues. Wiis supply does not meet demand, but its much more easy to start increasing it, than cut it down. Yes, cutdowns means it does not sell, and then there is a problem. One thing is for sure, Nintendo increases production as long as its necessary.
Nintendo has the situation when it comes to production issues.
Hardware updates. M$ has announced about after-launch updates a few times. Sony propably will soon too (besides dropping the EE off). Nintendo has no need at the moment and when they have production issues, its propably even not wise. "Wii2" will never be out. Updates will be software, possibly a new microcode, possibly nothing significant or minor hardware updates. Satoru Iwata has told about Wiis follower, but that means, that Nintendo is not going to exit console market, they will be there, when next generation arrives. M$'s updates play the game for Wii.
No hardware updates for Wii, what is good thing for consumers, who own the product.
Technical advances. Only 360 is without technical advance, PS3 has BD-drive, and Wii has Wii Remote. Compared to PS3, theres one good thing in 360:s external HD-DVD: you can buy it, if you need it, but you dont have to and you get the console for less price (than with build-in drive).
Theoreticly speaking, PS3 and Wii has technical advance over 360 (and over each other).
HDTV penetration. This doesnt necessarily work against Wii, most people buy HD-sets, becuse they think that better TV resolution, gives you a better image quality. As you know, source gives better image quality than resolution. And if you buy expensive TV, you cant afford to buy expensive console with it. Besides, many older HD:s in US and Japan, are 480p/1080i sets. So you wont benefit that much of sets like that (no 720p or 1080p). Eventually these people might buy 360 or PS3, but they need to save more money, what takes time and at that time all the good games might be on Wii.
This can be Wiis weak point, but it could also happen vise versa.
Ported games. At the moment ports for Wii are shitty, developers just want to make fast money. But as soon as more quality titles starts to hit Wii, even these ports are made better than now. If Wii reaches the critical mass, most games will be made for Wii, when 360 and PS3 getting ports, if vice versa, ports can be made easily (compared to fixing controls), by downgrading the graphics. Who wants to play crippled Wii sports?
If sold enough, this will be strong area for the Wii.
Development costs. After you master developing for Wii Remote, its a lot cheaper than developing for its competitors. After all, the one which makes most money, gets the most investments.
Again point for the Wii.
Price. Its cheap, when compared to competitors, and if it gets cheap enough, it could be a hit in China or India (they are getting more money from day to day), which have population over 2 billion combined. With the price of 360 and PS3, theres no way that they penetrate to those markets. Well, Nintendo said, that they expand gaming in to new areas (yes, they sell consoles in Asia outside Japan).
I dont see any reason why Wii would not sell over 80M, over 100M or over 120M. Its of course hard to tell at the moment, but my guess is (even with wide range) that Wii sells between 50 and 150 million units worldwide.
