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Forums - Sales Discussion - Borderlands sells 3 million

mrstickball on 20 February 2010

Well, don't they say that almost half of PC sales are digital downloads? And pretty much all of that comes from Steam, so that number doesn't contradict my estimation at all.

But how do you know it sold 125K on Steam?

I think that the people that say half of PC sales are digital downloads are the ones like shio trying to justify the decline of the retail market by over-inflating digital sales. Digital sales aren't as strong as some would have you to believe them. They are increasing greatly, but I don't think it is at 50% yet. Maybe 30-40%.

Although Steam has a huge chunk of digital market share, its not quite as true for 3rd parties. The closest analogy one can find would be Nintendo vs. 3rd parties. Valve takes a huge chunk of revenue from its titles on Steam, which over-plays the market share of Steam. Although it probably has 60-70% of annual revenue each year, taking out the Valve titles, and its probably closer to 50%. So you have D2D, GamersGate and the others probably boosting borderlands to ~200k between all digital formats.

As for how I get the data:

www.fadellc.com

They have Steam data, so I looked it up



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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Slimebeast on 20 February 2010
mrstickball said:

Well, don't they say that almost half of PC sales are digital downloads? And pretty much all of that comes from Steam, so that number doesn't contradict my estimation at all.

But how do you know it sold 125K on Steam?

I think that the people that say half of PC sales are digital downloads are the ones like shio trying to justify the decline of the retail market by over-inflating digital sales. Digital sales aren't as strong as some would have you to believe them. They are increasing greatly, but I don't think it is at 50% yet. Maybe 30-40%.

Although Steam has a huge chunk of digital market share, its not quite as true for 3rd parties. The closest analogy one can find would be Nintendo vs. 3rd parties. Valve takes a huge chunk of revenue from its titles on Steam, which over-plays the market share of Steam. Although it probably has 60-70% of annual revenue each year, taking out the Valve titles, and its probably closer to 50%. So you have D2D, GamersGate and the others probably boosting borderlands to ~200k between all digital formats.

As for how I get the data:

www.fadellc.com

They have Steam data, so I looked it up

lol it's your own business.

I agree that PC DD sales is nowhere near 50%, and for a title like Borderlands, being a new game, third party and all, the DD share of sales is hardly even 1/3 yet. Maybe 25-30%? (after all the super cheap Steam deals DD sales proportion versus retail for Borderlands will catch up of course, but we aren't there yet).

No, I don't believe in 200k total DD Borderland sales. Steam totally dominates DD. If you don't realize they're at least 80% of DD market on PC (excluding MMOs of course), I feel sorry for your business. ;)

D2D is very small. Gamersgate is almost unknown.



mrstickball on 20 February 2010

According to NPD:

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/26292/Direct2Drive_Recent_Digital_Distribution_Market_Estimates_Misinformation_At_Best.php

Steam has 62% of the market share in terms of units sold, and 50% of dollars. If Valve comprises 50% of unit sales on Steam, then what does that make the skewing of 3rd party games on Steam? That would mean that 3rd party games on Steam sell quite a bit less than you are inferring. Instead of Steam selling 6 times more copies than on other digital services, its closer to 3 times.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Slimebeast on 20 February 2010
mrstickball said:
According to NPD:

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/26292/Direct2Drive_Recent_Digital_Distribution_Market_Estimates_Misinformation_At_Best.php

Steam has 62% of the market share in terms of units sold, and 50% of dollars. If Valve comprises 50% of unit sales on Steam, then what does that make the skewing of 3rd party games on Steam? That would mean that 3rd party games on Steam sell quite a bit less than you are inferring. Instead of Steam selling 6 times more copies than on other digital services, its closer to 3 times.

I meant in the context of Borderlands.

From your article:

"Steam service led the market handily with 62 percent of total unit sales market share, and 50 percent dollar share. Blizzard.com followed with 20 percent and 27 percent, respectively. EA.com came in third place with 7 percent and 6 percent.

Direct2Drive came in fourth with 7 percent in total unit market share for the period, and 10 percent of dollar share"

^Which leaves all other actors to only 4% in unit share and 7% in Dollar share.

So if we assume the 125K of Borderlands on Steam is correct, then going by those greened numbers it correlates to roughly 15K Borderlands copies sold on D2D and 10K for the rest (GamersGate and whatever). Because obviously you have to substract EA's and Blizzard's marketshares because Borderlands and other 3d party games (expect their own) aren't sold there.

Btw, a big part of Blizzard's 20% maketshare is World of Warcraft.



Barozi on 20 February 2010
WiiStation360 said:
Barozi said:
shio said:
Barozi said:
Foamer said:
400,000 on shelves though? Seems a bit excessive.

for 3 versions ?

that's about 130k each. I don't think that is excessive.

It is excessive when at this stage almost all sales of the game on consoles is already made, while on PC it is still going to sell alot considering the nature of PC games.

Also, there isn't excess when it comes to digital sales, which most of PC Borderlands' sales on PC should be. My guess if PC should be atleast 800k, which tells me it has great chance of outselling the Xbox 360 version.

I doubt it will sell more than 2 million copies on the PC lol

That's about as much as Battlefield 2 sold in its lifetime....

According to Dice, Battlefield 2 sold 2.25M in it's first year on the PC.  (June 2005-June 2006) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battlefield_2

I assume it sold a few more copies in the next 3.5 years.

1. I did that research before and the link is dead and I haven't found any other link on Google for that 2.25m figure. No news report - nothing.

2. This site tracks EVERY Battlefield 2 player that at least created a BF2 online profile: http://www.spieler-daten.de/bf2_global_stats

This means that there are ~ 1.7m player with an online account.

Now we know that the Battlefield series is heavily focused on multiplayer, so I'd say that at least 75% of all BF2 owners created an online account.

With these numbers it sold around 2.2m.

Never in hell more than 3m. That's for sure.



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WiiStation360 on 20 February 2010
Barozi said:
WiiStation360 said:
Barozi said:
shio said:
Barozi said:
Foamer said:
400,000 on shelves though? Seems a bit excessive.

for 3 versions ?

that's about 130k each. I don't think that is excessive.

It is excessive when at this stage almost all sales of the game on consoles is already made, while on PC it is still going to sell alot considering the nature of PC games.

Also, there isn't excess when it comes to digital sales, which most of PC Borderlands' sales on PC should be. My guess if PC should be atleast 800k, which tells me it has great chance of outselling the Xbox 360 version.

I doubt it will sell more than 2 million copies on the PC lol

That's about as much as Battlefield 2 sold in its lifetime....

According to Dice, Battlefield 2 sold 2.25M in it's first year on the PC.  (June 2005-June 2006) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battlefield_2

I assume it sold a few more copies in the next 3.5 years.

1. I did that research before and the link is dead and I haven't found any other link on Google for that 2.25m figure. No news report - nothing.

2. This site tracks EVERY Battlefield 2 player that at least created a BF2 online profile: http://www.spieler-daten.de/bf2_global_stats

This means that there are ~ 1.7m player with an online account.

Now we know that the Battlefield series is heavily focused on multiplayer, so I'd say that at least 75% of all BF2 owners created an online account.

With these numbers it sold around 2.2m.

Never in hell more than 3m. That's for sure.

Here is the earning report from Dice where it clearly states 2,250,000 sold to retailers in the first year. (over 3.5 years ago)

http://feed.ne.cision.com/wpyfs/00/00/00/00/00/08/12/2A/wkr0001.pdf

 

 



Barozi on 21 February 2010
WiiStation360 said:
Barozi said:
WiiStation360 said:
Barozi said:
shio said:
Barozi said:
Foamer said:
400,000 on shelves though? Seems a bit excessive.

for 3 versions ?

that's about 130k each. I don't think that is excessive.

It is excessive when at this stage almost all sales of the game on consoles is already made, while on PC it is still going to sell alot considering the nature of PC games.

Also, there isn't excess when it comes to digital sales, which most of PC Borderlands' sales on PC should be. My guess if PC should be atleast 800k, which tells me it has great chance of outselling the Xbox 360 version.

I doubt it will sell more than 2 million copies on the PC lol

That's about as much as Battlefield 2 sold in its lifetime....

According to Dice, Battlefield 2 sold 2.25M in it's first year on the PC.  (June 2005-June 2006) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battlefield_2

I assume it sold a few more copies in the next 3.5 years.

1. I did that research before and the link is dead and I haven't found any other link on Google for that 2.25m figure. No news report - nothing.

2. This site tracks EVERY Battlefield 2 player that at least created a BF2 online profile: http://www.spieler-daten.de/bf2_global_stats

This means that there are ~ 1.7m player with an online account.

Now we know that the Battlefield series is heavily focused on multiplayer, so I'd say that at least 75% of all BF2 owners created an online account.

With these numbers it sold around 2.2m.

Never in hell more than 3m. That's for sure.

Here is the earning report from Dice where it clearly states 2,250,000 sold to retailers in the first year. (over 3.5 years ago)

http://feed.ne.cision.com/wpyfs/00/00/00/00/00/08/12/2A/wkr0001.pdf

Then they clearly overshipped it at that point of time.

Just look at the numbers of Battlefield 1942. I thought the series was much more popular, but now I'm not even surprised by the BF2 numbers.



Slimebeast on 21 February 2010
Barozi said:
WiiStation360 said:
Barozi said:
WiiStation360 said:
Barozi said:
shio said:
Barozi said:
Foamer said:
400,000 on shelves though? Seems a bit excessive.

for 3 versions ?

that's about 130k each. I don't think that is excessive.

It is excessive when at this stage almost all sales of the game on consoles is already made, while on PC it is still going to sell alot considering the nature of PC games.

Also, there isn't excess when it comes to digital sales, which most of PC Borderlands' sales on PC should be. My guess if PC should be atleast 800k, which tells me it has great chance of outselling the Xbox 360 version.

I doubt it will sell more than 2 million copies on the PC lol

That's about as much as Battlefield 2 sold in its lifetime....

According to Dice, Battlefield 2 sold 2.25M in it's first year on the PC.  (June 2005-June 2006) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battlefield_2

I assume it sold a few more copies in the next 3.5 years.

1. I did that research before and the link is dead and I haven't found any other link on Google for that 2.25m figure. No news report - nothing.

2. This site tracks EVERY Battlefield 2 player that at least created a BF2 online profile: http://www.spieler-daten.de/bf2_global_stats

This means that there are ~ 1.7m player with an online account.

Now we know that the Battlefield series is heavily focused on multiplayer, so I'd say that at least 75% of all BF2 owners created an online account.

With these numbers it sold around 2.2m.

Never in hell more than 3m. That's for sure.

Here is the earning report from Dice where it clearly states 2,250,000 sold to retailers in the first year. (over 3.5 years ago)

http://feed.ne.cision.com/wpyfs/00/00/00/00/00/08/12/2A/wkr0001.pdf

Then they clearly overshipped it at that point of time.

Just look at the numbers of Battlefield 1942. I thought the series was much more popular, but now I'm not even surprised by the BF2 numbers.

What do you mean by that? (especially the BF1942 reference)



Barozi on 21 February 2010
Slimebeast said:
Barozi said:
WiiStation360 said:
Barozi said:
WiiStation360 said:

According to Dice, Battlefield 2 sold 2.25M in it's first year on the PC.  (June 2005-June 2006) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battlefield_2

I assume it sold a few more copies in the next 3.5 years.

1. I did that research before and the link is dead and I haven't found any other link on Google for that 2.25m figure. No news report - nothing.

2. This site tracks EVERY Battlefield 2 player that at least created a BF2 online profile: http://www.spieler-daten.de/bf2_global_stats

This means that there are ~ 1.7m player with an online account.

Now we know that the Battlefield series is heavily focused on multiplayer, so I'd say that at least 75% of all BF2 owners created an online account.

With these numbers it sold around 2.2m.

Never in hell more than 3m. That's for sure.

Here is the earning report from Dice where it clearly states 2,250,000 sold to retailers in the first year. (over 3.5 years ago)

http://feed.ne.cision.com/wpyfs/00/00/00/00/00/08/12/2A/wkr0001.pdf

Then they clearly overshipped it at that point of time.

Just look at the numbers of Battlefield 1942. I thought the series was much more popular, but now I'm not even surprised by the BF2 numbers.

What do you mean by that? (especially the BF1942 reference)

Take a look at the link.

In 4 years they shipped ~2.5m units of Battlefield 1942; ~350k units of Battlefield 1942 Deluxe Edition; ~400k units of Battlefield Anthology; ~100k units of Battlefield Complete Collection

BF1942 total: 3.35m units shipped as of June 2006

In roughly 2 1/2 years they shipped ~1.36m units of Battlefield Vietnam; ~100k of Battlefield Complete Collection (includes Vietnam)

BF Vietnam total: 1.45 units shipped as of June 2006

 

In 1 year they shipped 2.25m units of Battlefield 2; 100k units of Battlefield 2 Complete

BF2 total: 2.35m units as of June 2006

BF2 online accounts: 1.675.622 http://www.spieler-daten.de/bf2_stats_list/33513

BF2142 online accounts: 656.022 http://www.2142-stats.com/player/13121.html

 

 

Personally I thought that the Battlefield franchise is much bigger and that BF1942 and Battlefield 2 sold at least 5 million each, but in fact they're not even close to that number.



Slimebeast on 21 February 2010
Barozi said:
Slimebeast said:
Barozi said:
WiiStation360 said:
Barozi said:
WiiStation360 said:

According to Dice, Battlefield 2 sold 2.25M in it's first year on the PC.  (June 2005-June 2006) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battlefield_2

I assume it sold a few more copies in the next 3.5 years.

1. I did that research before and the link is dead and I haven't found any other link on Google for that 2.25m figure. No news report - nothing.

2. This site tracks EVERY Battlefield 2 player that at least created a BF2 online profile: http://www.spieler-daten.de/bf2_global_stats

This means that there are ~ 1.7m player with an online account.

Now we know that the Battlefield series is heavily focused on multiplayer, so I'd say that at least 75% of all BF2 owners created an online account.

With these numbers it sold around 2.2m.

Never in hell more than 3m. That's for sure.

Here is the earning report from Dice where it clearly states 2,250,000 sold to retailers in the first year. (over 3.5 years ago)

http://feed.ne.cision.com/wpyfs/00/00/00/00/00/08/12/2A/wkr0001.pdf

Then they clearly overshipped it at that point of time.

Just look at the numbers of Battlefield 1942. I thought the series was much more popular, but now I'm not even surprised by the BF2 numbers.

What do you mean by that? (especially the BF1942 reference)

Take a look at the link.

In 4 years they shipped ~2.5m units of Battlefield 1942; ~350k units of Battlefield 1942 Deluxe Edition; ~400k units of Battlefield Anthology; ~100k units of Battlefield Complete Collection

BF1942 total: 3.35m units shipped as of June 2006

In roughly 2 1/2 years they shipped ~1.36m units of Battlefield Vietnam; ~100k of Battlefield Complete Collection (includes Vietnam)

BF Vietnam total: 1.45 units shipped as of June 2006

 

In 1 year they shipped 2.25m units of Battlefield 2; 100k units of Battlefield 2 Complete

BF2 total: 2.35m units as of June 2006

BF2 online accounts: 1.675.622 http://www.spieler-daten.de/bf2_stats_list/33513

BF2142 online accounts: 656.022 http://www.2142-stats.com/player/13121.html

 

 

Personally I thought that the Battlefield franchise is much bigger and that BF1942 and Battlefield 2 sold at least 5 million each, but in fact they're not even close to that number.

Oh, I see.

But hey, it's a game on the PC.