never say never?

Sure not being able to sell many consoles in japan hurts M$ but it is still possible for them to win just unlikely.

wow..i have never thought about it like that, this is the second time you have given me alternate insight.

Indeed, I don't get all this "you need Japan", not at all, it's around 13% of total Wii/PS3 sales .. if you have a massive hit in America, that can overcome Japan with ease.

Because they only read english speaking countries' message boards?

Its better to dominate a growing part of the world like China than to dominate an area thats well past its prime like Japan.

I don't think Japan would make the difference, though i think that the Japanese publishers are due for a comeback to market dominion as the Wii and handhelds take over, given that the big Western devs view developing for either of those as bush-league amateur hour or something, but the 360 showed that the Japanese could be more willing to go for an American product (or more so than they were for the Xbox). All they need is games with appeal. Microsoft still has room to grow in japan

No, the bigger problem Microsoft has is that their preferred tactics aren't going to help them in the current "vision" of the console market. They could have won this generation handily, if Nintendo hadn't changed the rules of the game. You can see with the 360 that Microsoft adjusted to the PlayStation style of market dominance, but one generation too late, and now that conquest of the industry is centered around a small elite of well-placed system sellers, i think the ball is out of Microsoft's court, for now. Another change in the industry is needed, and the question is if Microsoft is capable of providing it themselves.

Depends how deep Bill Gates' pockets are.

They are an American company, they do best within cultures which are similar to their own. That means they do best in America and they do worst in Japan. As most English editorials come out of the U.S.A. or the U.K. and these are their strongest markets it makes sense that they are mostly positive towards them.

Well they seem to be doing alright in Europe. Not fantastic, but good enough to keep a foothold there and better than Sony is doing in the U.S.A. relative to them. Noone compares to the Wii of course which is doing fantastic in Europe.

Eh, I think this is silly. Nintendo's success isn't just built on the Wii-mote. From Brain Age, to Nintendogs, Wii Fit, Mario Kart (the wheel), 2D Mario and so on, to act like Nintendo just lucked out on a single bet doesn't make sense. I'd say they're overwhelmingly the favorite for next gen, they're the only company making the right moves. I think this year should be more indication of this (Natal / Sony-mote vs Vitality).

I especially don't see how Sony learning from their mistakes means anything. I think it's the other way around - Nintendo learned from their own mistakes. They've always had the strongest first party, their major error was in catering to shrinking markets, and poor third party relations. Now that they've fixed this, how can Sony overtake them? Their first party is far weaker and after the PS3 they'll be more pressured than ever to stay profitable (less money to go around for price cuts and such).

Until another company (MS, Sony or otherwise) can prove they can sell to the expanded market, I see Nintendo easily holding onto their lead position.

I don't know about that. As long as Japan's handheld market remains as strong as it is now, it isn't going anywhere. It may be weaker on the home console front, but it's carried the DS and PSP sales so well, it just can't be ignored.

OT: I don't think Japan is the reason MS can't take first. They're competing fine with the PS3 without Japan. Their real issue is capturing people outside of the American male demographic, the guys buying shooters and Madden. Obviously they're trying, as shown with Natal, but I don't think it will succeed. We'll see soon enough.

Of course, I wouldn't say they will never have a best selling console, just that it's impossible in their current state. People could say the same about Nintendo, until sometime around 2004-2006...