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c0rd on 16 February 2010
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Seece said:

Wii mote was a gamble, Nintendo had faith obviously but it was a gamble nonetheless, they could come out with even more inovation next gen and it go completly tits up.

Sony I feel will win next gen, winning a previous gen by tens and tens millions more than the competitors does not mean it's likely you'll win the next gen. I feel Sony have learnt from their mistakes, the only thing that could harm them is the smaller userbase of the PS3 going onwards.

Eh, I think this is silly. Nintendo's success isn't just built on the Wii-mote. From Brain Age, to Nintendogs, Wii Fit, Mario Kart (the wheel), 2D Mario and so on, to act like Nintendo just lucked out on a single bet doesn't make sense. I'd say they're overwhelmingly the favorite for next gen, they're the only company making the right moves. I think this year should be more indication of this (Natal / Sony-mote vs Vitality).

I especially don't see how Sony learning from their mistakes means anything. I think it's the other way around - Nintendo learned from their own mistakes. They've always had the strongest first party, their major error was in catering to shrinking markets, and poor third party relations. Now that they've fixed this, how can Sony overtake them? Their first party is far weaker and after the PS3 they'll be more pressured than ever to stay profitable (less money to go around for price cuts and such).

Until another company (MS, Sony or otherwise) can prove they can sell to the expanded market, I see Nintendo easily holding onto their lead position.

Squilliam said:
Japan is quickly becoming an irrelevant market. The population is dropping, the importance of handhelds is increasing and canibalising the home console market. As the markets in the rest of the world expand I bet that by the middle of next generation there will be no 'Japan' row in the Vgchartz home page.

I don't know about that. As long as Japan's handheld market remains as strong as it is now, it isn't going anywhere. It may be weaker on the home console front, but it's carried the DS and PSP sales so well, it just can't be ignored.


OT: I don't think Japan is the reason MS can't take first. They're competing fine with the PS3 without Japan. Their real issue is capturing people outside of the American male demographic, the guys buying shooters and Madden. Obviously they're trying, as shown with Natal, but I don't think it will succeed. We'll see soon enough.

Of course, I wouldn't say they will never have a best selling console, just that it's impossible in their current state. People could say the same about Nintendo, until sometime around 2004-2006...