I may have something wrong here, but...

Last I heard the publisher makes around $15-35 dollars in profit per sold copy. Lets say they make $20, a not out of this world assumption. Then they would have to sell more than:

2 600 000 / 20 = 130 000

to make a profit. To need the 400k you are talking about they would have to make:

2 600 000 / 400 000 = $6.5

per copy. That is pretty far from the truth, I would say. At least at full price.

Has Super Bowl been played?

During the full broadcast, how many times did they show that 30 second clip?

Yes and I only saw it once...

It really made me want to buy the game. The ad was very good.

A normal EA / HD marketing budget is around $10 million + so it wasn't like it they blew the budget or spent an precendented amount. It fits nicely with their target market I think and will catch peoples attention.

I'm just iffy on the product itself, doesn't take me a game with that much appeal, at least not as much as EA think. Sure enough God of War sells well, but that game is absolutely incredible, Dante's Inferno is just a good game...

I'm not sure if EA have a hit on their hands here or not, just takes me as a game which will be forgotten in an unusually cramped Q1.

$30 per copy at full price is the best estimate to use on somewhere like here, plus extra revenue from all special editions.

 As I said above, this is still just a fraction on any typical EA games marketing budget.

I like how a company losses millions goes out and spends more like they just don't care!
Well hopefully for EA this ammounts to tremendous sales (I imagine Mass Effect 2 would have well, but not as well without that huge football ad.)

Trust me, the NFC ad did not cost nearly as much as the superbowl ad did, lol.