So 2010 goes to Wii again... sad story but I proves that Wii is just good to be given as a present to the kiddies for Xmas! PS3 has no chance to beat Wii in 2011 because Wii gets The Last Story Zelda holiday boost. I can't wait to see The Last Stroy sales though, it will show whether RPG players are really on PS3 or not.

RPG players aren't really on either PS3 or Wii... they're mostly on DS and PSP.  And soon probably 3DS.

I think The Last Story's going to end up being Wii's best selling RPG in Japan that doesn't have "Dragon Quest" or "Mario" in the title (or "Monster Hunter" or "Zelda" if you think that way), but it still won't pass 300k.  Zelda's a toss up, but I expect at least half a million worst case, and probably around 800k best case.  DQX will sell well over 3m, but probably just less than 4m.

Sorry I was talking of home systems here. The trend is in favour of PS3 right now (Tales of Graces F is a good example). I quite agree on The Last Story, but I still don't see why RPG gamers would shift to 3DS. There're barely Tales of the Abyss (which I will get as I know Japanese I must say) and Kingdom Hearts 3DS which doesn't seem that attractive... No, RPG gamers are on PS3 and PSP (I don't remember DS getting any major RPG since DQIX). And DQX's system is not decided imo (I fear Microsoft might get it as a temp exclusive).

Can you do a thread like this on 2011 too?

but named: how many weeks will ps3 outsell the wii or something

I don't think I'll get enough time :(

If you wanna do it? Format is already done, you just gotta change the dates ;)

Tales isn't a good barometer for JRPGs in general.  Tales on DS vs PSP have proven that out... while PSP's never had a single million seller JRPG, DS has had tons (Pokemon D/P/Platinum, Pokemon B/W, Pokemon HG/SS, DQIX, DQIV/V/VI, DQM Joker 1-2, FF3, Inazuma Eleven 3, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon 2).... and yet even outsourced spinoff Tales games on PSP outsold original mothership entries on DS.  

The current trend for PS3 JRPGs would actually indicate they're declining somewhat (Vesperia vs Graces f, WKC vs WKC2, Rorona vs Totori) and there were even a few notable underperformers (EOE, SO4) to outright bombs (Trinity, Last Rebellion) with no real standout success stories for 2010.  RPGs on the system in 2010 have generally done worse than they did in 2009, which is actually pretty troubling considering we're in a post-slim, post-FFXIII world.   We'll see how stuff like Disgaea 4, Ninokuni and Dark Souls does in 2011 though.  Wii's no better off admittedly (Xenoblade! ;_;), but I don't really see that huge a gulf between the systems in the genre at large... core/niche RPGs will likely do somewhat better on PS3 while casual/mainstream RPGs will likely do somewhat better on Wii.  It's basically like the DS vs PSP schism.  Tales belongs on the PlayStations, Dragon Quest with Nintendo.

And DQX is 100% confirmed for Wii, and was just reconfirmed for Wii recently by Yuji Horii himself, at this point saying otherwise is mostly wishful thinking.  There's literally a greater chance Microsoft could steal Versus as an exclusive than they could DQX.

As for 3DS, it has an insane amount of 3rd party RPG support already announced, more than PS2 did at this point in it's cycle even.  For stuff we already have media on there's Devil Survivor Overclock (spring), Tales of the Abyss (spring), Kingdom Hearts 3D (2011), Fantasy Life (2011), Paper Mario (2011)... then there's also additional announced IPs like Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, Shin Megami Tensei, Persona, Etrian Odyssey, Class of Heroes, Yu-Gi-Oh, Super Robot Taisen, Medatbots... and then there's also stuff that's obviously coming like Pokemon, Inazuma Eleven, Fire Emblem, SaGa, etc.  It's pretty clear which system is going to inherit most of the JRPG audience.

I'll think about it if no one else does it.

Pokemon, DQ and Inazuma are no better as a JRPG barometer : they go well beyond the standard JRPG audience, you know that as well as I do.

I must say you're quite wrong on PS3 JRPGs. EoE stands at 240K, which is really not that bad (52th best selling game of the year). Totori is at 138K and still selling 2-3K a week whereas Rorona stopped at nearly 80K. Tales of Graces F is at 306K and still selling 10K when Vesperia stalled at 350K (which is the 3rd best score of this gen). Even niche JRPGs like Neptune make the headlines and make it to the West (which, sadly, is not yet the case for most Wii JRPGs).

We'll see what future holds for DQX and VersusXIII (hopefullly on Jan. 18th, the wait is killing me) and I keep faith on 3DS because I will probably get it, just for Tales of the Abyss and Professor Layton vs Ace Attorney!

I'm not saying Pokemon, DQ and Inazuma are a better barometer, I'm saying the JRPG audience shifts differently for each platform, and the Wii/PS3 breakdown really very much mirrors the DS/PSP breakdown.  Like I said, casual/mainstream is a better fit for Nintendo, niche/hardcore better for PlayStation.  Dragon Quest; better for Nintendo, Tales; better for PlayStation.  

As for the sales, I'm using Enterbrain/Famitsu for reference, so that likely has to do with the discrepancies (they have Graces well behind Vesperia launch aligned, despite the holiday push for Graces) but I was wrong on Rorona/Totori (75k vs 90k).  Neptunia didn't do all that great either imo, considering the licenses it had and the fact Sega actually picked it up for publishing... it's basically low budget shovelware though, so it probably still made money for Idea Factory.  Sega said EOE was disappointing too, they expected 500k across platforms (though they could've been talking worldwide).

Most Wii JRPGs have come west though, and gotten quite a bit of enthusiast attention from the usual suspects (1up, Siliconera, NeoGAF, etc), just not Nintendo's (so far).  Shiren 3, Phantom Brave, Rune Factory Frontier, Little King's Story, Muramasa, Arc Rise Fantasia, Sakura Wars, Baroque, Chocobo Dungeon, FFCC Echoes of Time, Fragile, Opoona, Valhalla Knights, Spectrobes, Dokapon, Symphonia DOTW, DQ Swords, etc, etc... Wii's actually loaded with relatively niche and lower tier spinoff JRPGs, in fact the only the ones that don't make it over are the exact same things that wouldn't (and haven't) made it over on PS3 (SD Gundam, Super Robot Taisen, Tales of Graces).

Finally it's over! Nice thread, trestres, and it was a thrilling competition until the end!

Both Sony and Ninty have enough reasons to be quite happy, although neither of them overwon.