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Forums - Sales - Time for a "Line in the Sand" - Hot Shots Golf (Japan)

Righto,

We all know that the PS3 has been off to a slow start in Japan.

We also know that previous "smash hits" (ala quality titles) on the console have sold below expectation (Virtual Fighter, Musou Gundam, My Summer Holiday 3, Folklore, Ridge Racer, etc...).

The biggest game for the PS3 yet - Hot Shots Golf 5 - hits Japan in 2(?) weeks. Its a Sony published title, previous titles (PS1/PS2) have sold millions

There are also special PS3 bundles coming out with the game - to help drive sales of the console.

Initial reports have preorder figures for the game ranging from 300k-500k.

So with all that...

....

Its time to draw a Line in the Sand.

Give me two figures:

1/ First being the sales of the title in the first week

2/ Second being the sales of the title over the first month (4 conseq weeks).

Anything under these figures indicates poor, disapointing sales & more doom/gloom for Sony/PS3. Anything above these figures represents the opposite. Positive, string sales - and the first sign of a rebound for sales of the PS3/software.

(I think its software sales here that are relevant - but if you want to try hardware sales as well, be my guest :>).

(Note - of course you can't draw a "digital" conclusion from a simple "analog" number - but the idea of this thread is to get some solid numbers - so we can properly compare when the title is released).

 

 



Gesta Non Verba

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Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

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I'll start (and will be generous):

First week - 130k

First month - 300k

 



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

110 K first week

220K first month



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

First week: 200k

First month: 320k 



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100K- First Week, (although not connected am using Dragon Quest as a barometer here)
250K- First Month



Heeeeyyyy!!!! <Snap>

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Most of those look very reasonable. So we are definitely expecting HSG to reach the 100k mark first week. Its on the record (and it should reach it...).



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

I'll give it a Gundam Musou start and finish.

First Week: 175k
First Month: 250k



250k - first week
450k - first month

Overall, bundle sales included.



1 million units *Dr. Evil pinky finger thing*

Actually, I don't know. I've never played any of those games, but if it is popular in Japan, I'll take a guess that it'll sell maybe around 100k in the first week. With what, 300k pre-orders, maybe that'll be higher?



125,000 first week
250,000 first month