| SaviorX said: You think in 3 years when more people cross over into the "hardcore" Brawl will start having better legs than Mario Kart? I doubt it, but either way, I think Brawl will hit 12 million and MK Wii will hit like 15 or 16 million. Monster sales nonetheless. |
No. The majority of casuals we know now will never fit into the definition of hardcore we have created anyways. Maybe the NES generation became hardcore, but that audience was mostly made up of little boys and/or nerds. 80 year old women will never be playing Brawl, owning people online in Halo, or trying to support the industry by buying creative and innovative games. Ever. If they're still even alive 10 years later, they'll be playing the same games (and this could be said for the other demographics). Millions of people watch movies or draw, but how many do these things seriously (or hardcore in this case)?
Mario Kart Wii will have far longer legs, and Brawl will likely never outsell it again. Besides, your Brawl predictions are far too high. Obviously the Wii is a powerful software seller, but do you really think it's going to outsell its predecessor by 5 million copies? The game has had impressive sales in a short amount of time, but it was fairly frontloaded. Once the game tails off in PAL, America will be its last bastion (since Brawl fell out of the Top 50 in Japan). The most we can expect is mediocre legs in Japan (since everyone in Japan bought it in the first week just like MGS4), fairly weak legs in PAL (since the series is not nearly as popular there), and maybe above average legs in America. Certainly not to outsell the majority of games before it, especially ones that had far greater appeal to casuals.
