About 2 years ago I was posting on a newfound site called Joystiq which I had found in the summer of 2005 discussing console race predictions amongst the madness. This was sometime in October and right now I can't find my original Joystiq posting BUT shortly after I made that October 2005 Joystiq commentary I decided to post those same thoughts in a better archival place: the newsgroups.

I called it "Future of Next-Generation of Gaming" and I took what was known from outgoing 6th generation, knowledge of what was known from 7th generation and made predictions on where the contest was going.

The ONLY THING I left out was Sony's self-sabotage. It never occured to me that company would self-destruct like it did. I accounted for PS2's momentum as a challenge for Wii to overcome but would eventually do so. My knowledge of this industry is built with every passing generation and I learned a new lesson there: account for self-sabotage with company regardless of success.

Outside of that oversight everything I saw came true.

Here's the stabler newsgroup version of that original October 2005 Joystiq.com post (November 5, 2005):

http://tinyurl.com/nqdcp

Lots of people thought I was nuts then too. They always do.

I reposted this in a later Joystiq article which I DID find called "PC Magazine gaming predictions"

I am message #10. See people's reactions to my post there if you feel inclined.

http://arcade.joystiq.com/2005/12/28/pc-mag-predictions

My knack for predicting this generation goes back quite a ways. But I didn't even start talking about games online until the summer of 2005. The "Revolution" suddenly made me interested in discussing game issues on the internet regardless of the 4 years I had been a part of the 'net at the time.

Tell me what you all think and do you still think my words hold up?

Keep in mind all this was said BEFORE XBox 360 launched. 

John Lucas

Some time ago, someone was asking for a link to any analyst predicting that the Wii would win before it was released. Here it is!

Pachter - owned.

Pachter. Psssshhhh!

That fool couldn't predict the rising of the sun, for God's sake.

Gotta admire his hustle though. This guy gets paid for NOT knowing what he's talking about. It's the most lush job in the world and you can't hate him for that.

John Lucas 

good prediction brother

My predictions may not have been as early as Johnlucas's, but I still ran into the same problem as him in over estimating Sony.

Here are my predictions from Oct 2006.

http://www.allanime.org/index.php?id=bbs&view=single_thread&cat_uid=2&conf_uid=6&thread_uid=672

Good Post Lucas

Woohoo! Lucas, very good. I just love the responses as well, especially

Rob Berryhill: "ROFLMAO! You either work for Nintendo, or you are high on crack. There is no way in hell that Nintendo will be more than an also-ran in this generation. That controller is going to be a huge flop, and the hardware is so far behind the other two that no one will want the games. I'm betting all of the 3rd party game developers that have, in the past, done with Nintendo exclusive titles will be bailing as fast as rats on a sinking ship. "

and Jordan: "You miss the key weakness of Nintendo and that's a critical mis-reading of the gaming audience. For the past several years the mantra has been "Games are too hard! People want simple games!" and it's proven to be a
disaster for them. They've been the last to do any kind of networking at all because they've been saying that people don't want online games... DOH! Wrong again. There's no reason to think this new controller innovation will be any different. "

The one I love is the guy that compares it with the DS as if that was a bad thing. I mean, even in 2005 the DS was already beating the PSP by almost 2 million units.

Wow, you're way better than all those analysts who predicted it would be in last place.

You made an excellent point with the "bored gamer" comment in that thread. I agree 100%.

I've had this argument with others, and it is, of course, entirely based on perception, but from my experience, last decades "hardcore gamer" got left behind in the wash of the PlayStation.

There are 50 million "80s kids" that grew up with a Nintendo in their home. They mostly followed Ninty to the SNES in the early 90s. However, around the time the next gen in consoles rolled out, with the 3DO, Jag, and eventually the PS1 and Saturn, this group did not follow to those consoles. This group graduated high school and went to college, and almost completely jumped to the PC after experiencing a "eureka moment" upon seeing shareware games like Doom, Descent, Warcraft, and Magic Carpet. Oh ... and that Internet thing.

Again, your mileage may very, but from my circle -- my clique -- I do not know a single person who owned both an NES and later a SNES that wound up owning a PS1. Every single one jumped to the PC almost solely to play games like Doom on direct dial-up services like DWANGO, and later Quake over true TCP/IP.

This is the generation that I see enjoying the Wii. Over 30, with children, and bored with FPS since we've been playing it since about 1993/94. This is the group that is getting together socially to knock back a few beers and have "Wii parties." I've been doing it. My friends have been doing it. I honestly cannot remember when I've had this much fun playing games -- it's been a loooong time, to say the least.

Nintendo's "ace up its sleeve" going into this gen has been its back-catalog of NES & SNES classics on the Virtual Console. Neither Sony nor Microsoft can possibly compete with that, and that represents a potential "built-in" audience of > 50 million potential buyers, before we even get into the discussion of "blue oceans" or "casual gamers" or "that gimmicky wii remote thingy."

I see this group as the torch bearers that are the ones that are dismissive of the PS3s and 360s "next gen" graphics: People who have been gaming for 20+ years, chasing that brass ring, having finally realized that "next gen" isn't "next gen" anymore once you've bought it -- then its just old tech.

Not only did everyone underestimate "bored gamers," but I think EA and Ubi and Sega and others might wind up proving there have been an awful lot of "bored developers" too, and then things could get really interesting this gen.