With just over three weeks to go now til the launch of Splatoon Raiders, and now we've had a good look at it, how much do you predict the game will sell lifetime, and why?

8 million

Honestly it's pretty hard to predict. I think 5 million is guaranteed just because of how strong the franchise is in Japan. Splatoon 2 and Splatoon 3 roughly did 7.5m and 5m respectfully outside Japan so because it's a spinoff I could see it do 3m/3.5m outside Japan, and then a little bit more in Japan.

So something like 7.5m/8m lifetime

Ooh this is a hard one! The game will sell very well if Splatoon 2 & 3 are worth going off of (the latter being the fastest selling game in JP of all time at launch IIRC?). It’s a spin-off title, so maybe it won’t do similar figures to mainline… buuut I know for one that my excitement for Raiders far eclipses that of Splatoon 2 & 3, which felt as though they stuck a little too close to the OG Splatoon formula (in its single-player campaign).

That said: Japan will go crazy over it and it is Splatoon’s debut on Switch 2. So, I will be bold and say 7M by the end of the current fiscal year & +10M LTD. I don’t see it outperforming either of the Switch 1 mainline entries, but it won’t be too far off either. It literally is Splatoon 4 but without an emphasis on online turf wars and such, and with a far more creative spin on the gameplay loop all at a mere price tag of $50USD (digital).

I think the main draw of Splatoon is the competitive aspects. I am more conservative in my estimate. I am thinking I will pick up one of the 3.5 to 5 million copies that will be sold. It has been quite some time though since we had an entry in the series so I could be too pessimistic. Personally I am hyped for a real Splatoon 4. I do hope that we see some of the new saminoids in S4's Salmon Run modes.
I will be picking up Raiders digitally for my wife's Switch 2 though after seeing the direct. The fact it supports local multiplayer and it seems I will only have to buy one copy is what put me over the fence on this game.