I'm not even sure if the current Xbox Series models are being subsidized anymore. The All-Digital Series X costs $549.99 despite the Series X launching at $499.99 with a disc drive. If a disc drive costs $50 then the Xbox Series X All-Digital is $150 more than it should cost, assuming the bill of materials dropped by $50 over 5 years. The all-digital PS5 is $449.99, which also makes no sense. 

I recall Daniel Ahmad and other sources stating that Microsoft incurs a loss of $100 to $200 on each Xbox manufactured. 

The Series S costs $379.99, which I think is ridiculous. 

Anyway, I predict that the bigboy model of the 10th Gen Xbox will be $649.99 or higher. In the past, consoles were cheaper than entry-level gaming PCs for the same graphics power (not counting Steam sales or online fees). I also predict that there will be more than just a bigboy model (Series X Successor) and a littleboy model (Series S Successor). There will be a third model that will be even weaker than the successor to the Series S (possibly even a 4th model too). 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a next-gen Xbox with comparable graphics power to the PS6, costing $800, while the PS6 is sold at $550. But I think this is unlikely, so I'll stick to my $650 or greater prediction. 

The typical Xbox Apologetics when this happens will be "But Gamepass is such a good deal that you should be happy to pay $150-$250 more than a PS6!". 

And with that, Xbox will no longer be a console but a PC in console clothing. It will lack the four things that really make a console a console. No Disc Drive. Not cheaper than a PC for the same power. No exclusives. Not running an efficient OS. 

P.S. Sony will follow suit 4 years after the launch of 10th Gen Xbox and stop subsidizing PS6 consoles. Nintendo will own the console market with 70% marketshare. 

Well now that they're out of consoles it'll be cool to see what kinda gaming PC they can make. I bet it will cost more for sure.

Double post.

And they will force Copilot with AI bullshit and it sells worse than Wii U and Dreamcast.

They will have no console marketshare. Xbox is seemingly transitioning to a PC brand, and their hardware will run Steam and other storefronts/services including Microsoft's own. I don't think they're launching a traditional console that developers are required to support separately from PC.

Nintendo achieving 70% marketshare is possible if you disregard the active PS4 + PS5 players and make it purely about Switch 2 vs PS6 hardware. PS5 players' transition to PS6 could be VERY slow, and many of them may end up moving to PC.

Of course, if it is not a closed platform and has other store fronts there's no way it will be subsidized as MS will have no guarantee of income from software, so they will have to at the very least sell the product at break even, but most likely they will sell hardware for a profit. It will be more like a prebuilt PC than a traditional console.

Along with comments of it being the "largest technical leap for a generation" (it won't be, but they'll justify this comment with AI), if they're aiming for a powerful machine even $650 is too low. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see $799 or higher for their next console.

It will be a more niche product, and probably they will release lots of Xbox branded hardware, it's not just going to be one console for 6-8 years like the past. There'll be a range of products from MS that are prebuilt pc's, they may use the "Xbox PC" branding they've been putting on game trailers recently for this line-up of devices.

In a way the loss leader strategy already is a questionable strategy with Free to Play games being so popular. There are only a small amount of those gamers that buy microtransactions, most never spend a dime. Selling a console at a loss to those kind of players is simply trowing money away.

Interesting prediction, but why in the title you put <= when it comes to the price of the next Xbox being $650 or more when it should be >=?

I was agreeing with you until you said this. The PlayStation division is currently performing excellently for Sony. Why would they stop subsidizing their consoles while that formula is working so well for them? You're acting like the PS5 is underperforming for Sony but I've not seen anyone that invests in Sony say this. 

Considering how expensive Series X/S are right now, no way Xbox 5 will be under $650. I actually see $750-$900 as a likely range.
And yes, with it as a more open platform, taking a massive loss seems like throwing money into the fire.