Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD 2019

GProgrammer said:
DarthMetalliCube said:

I've seen some uber spin on this site in my many many years here. I'm actually quite impressed by some of it. Lawyer-level quality XD

Yes there was this guy on this other thread saying "Some still seem to have this weird notion that Nintendo fans are like these cultists that will ONLY stick to "their brand."

Top 20 selling games on the Switch

1 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Nintendo
2 Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Nintendo
3 Super Mario Odyssey Nintendo
4 The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Nintendo
5 Pokémon Sword and Shield Nintendo
6 Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu! and Let's Go, Eevee! Nintendo
7 Splatoon 2 Nintendo
8 Super Mario Party Nintendo
9 New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe Nintendo
10 Luigi's Mansion 3 Nintendo
11 Super Mario Maker 2 Nintendo
12 The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening Nintendo
13 1-2-Switch Nintendo
14 Mario Tennis Aces Nintendo
15 Fire Emblem: Three Houses Nintendo
16 Kirby Star Allies Nintendo
17 Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze Nintendo
18 Ring Fit Adventure Nintendo
19 Arms Nintendo
20 Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle Ubisoft !!!!!!! <-- how did nintendo let this one get into the top 20

Is 1-2-Switch better than all the 3rd party games?

Hyperbole doesn't necessarily = "spin" my dude XD

And so? That's meaningless without numbers. It's relative. It just means Nintendo stuff sells insanely well. And no shit, it's their console. Of course it's going to draw their fans! Doesn't mean there isn't room for many third party software to move millions of software - especially on a console with a 50 million base which is rapidly growing. I've yet to see any proof that GOOD third party products on Nintendo consoles (which appeal to a wide audience) don't move decent numbers.

But whatever, not like I care. No skin off my back if these guys want to turn away from potential profits! Let EA and all the rest of em ditch the Switch. Indies will be happy to step in and fill the void, which they're already on the fast track to doing. 



 

"We hold these truths t-be self-ful evident. All men and women created by the.. Go-you know the.. you know the thing!" - Joe Biden

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More charts! Some more yearly figures this time.





While the total U.S. market still hasn't come close to reaching the heights it did in the 2009-2010 period, it's still doing considerably well. We also have to take into consideration that the Switch was a mid-gen launch, growing while the PS4 & XBO were declining. It's entirely possible that combined PS4+XBO+Switch sales could come within a few million units of combined PS3+360+Wii sales (add in the Wii U and Gen 8 could close the gap with Gen 7 entirely). Overall, Nintendo remains the most volatile brand, with wild swings from system to system you don't really see with PlayStation & Xbox. They went from the GameCube to the Wii to the Wii U to the Switch. This accounts for most of the variability we see in the overall market this century. The Switch is doing quite well for itself, continuing to outpace nearly every console in the U.S. aside from the PS2 & Wii (though we have to remember the 360 was very back-loaded, and eventually beat the Wii in the U.S.), and its 2019 was the fourth best year on record for a Nintendo console in the U.S. The Switch will likely become the second best-selling Nintendo console in the U.S. to date, potentially selling as many as 35M units.

Looking at just PS+Xbox sales, after five years of relative stability, we've see the biggest year-over-year change in combined PS4+XBO sales, with a drop to just under 7 million units. It was a good run for PS4+XBO sales, with the 2014-2018 period producing sales of over 9M units each year, a streak we did not see in the previous two generations (though the peak seen in 2015, which wasn't very pronounced compared to other peaks, was only the fourth largest year for combined same-gen PS+Xbox sales). As of the end of 2019, the PS4 & XBO have amassed combined lifetime sales of 59.73M, compared to 61.4M for the PS3 & 360 for the 2005-2012 period (a period that was one year longer). For the 2013-2020 period, we ought to expect the PS4 & XBO to increase to a combined total of at least 63.5M and no more than 64M (assuming a drop of 40-45% in 2020 from 2019), compared to 66.64M for combined PS3+360 sales for the 2005-2013 period. This gives us a good comparison of the overall market for conventional consoles for this gen vs. last gen during the generation proper. This is not a significant decrease from Gen 7, and the difference could easily be due to a combination of a slightly shorter generation and less overlap between PlayStation and Xbox owners this generation. It will also be larger than the combined lifetime PS2+Xbox sales total of about 61M.

Overall, the total market for PlayStation & Xbox sales in the U.S. remains stable, with no major changes over three generations. We should probably expect 65-70M for combined PS5 & XSX sales next generation as well.

Quarterly charts will arrive probably tomorrow night or sometime Monday, depending on what I'm doing tomorrow night.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 01 February 2020

Shadow1980, the switch is not gen 8. And you're severely underestimating it's sales. Only 35m lifetime? lol

Last edited by Nu-13 - on 01 February 2020

Nu-13 said:

Shadow1980, the switch is not gen 8. And you're severely underestimating it's sales. Only 35m lifetime? lol

NPD says it's Gen 8. Nintendo agrees with them. Wikipedia considers that good enough to put the Switch in the page for Gen 8 consoles. That's infinitely more authoritative than what any individual gamer or community of gamers has to say on the matter.

Besides, the Switch launched closer to the PS4 & XBO than to the PS5 & XSX (less then 3 years, 4 months vs. at least 3 years, 8 months), and will almost certainly spend the majority of its primary lifespan (meaning pre-replacement) having competed against the PS4 & XBO. The longest gap between Nintendo consoles has been six years, meaning we realistically shouldn't expect the Switch 2 (or whatever replaces the Switch) to be out any later than 2023, at which point the PS5 & XSX will be at most only 3 years old (only 2 years, 4 months old assuming March 2023 for the Switch's successor).

And 35M in the U.S. is pretty damn good. The GBA sold over 35M in the U.S., and the Switch is lagging behind it. The Switch is outpacing the PS4 somewhat (for now), and the PS4 will likely end up at around 35M. The only three home consoles to exceed 40M in the U.S. have been the PS2 (46.7M), 360 (43.2M), and Wii (41.8M). The Switch is lagging behind the PS2 and Wii, and will eventually lag behind the 360 (look at the charts I've already posted to see what the Switch is facing in the future vs. the 360). Unless it experiences continued growth (unlikely without some kind of major stimulative factor) and/or has some absolutely insane legs, it probably isn't passing 40M in the U.S. I did once think 40M was a possibility, but only if it sold 7.5M in 2019. That didn't happen since Pokemon S&S and the Lite didn't move enough hardware in the holidays to do so, putting it at only 6.5M for the year. 35M is a much more reasonable estimate for the time being, though I'm willing to revise it upward depending on how things go for it this year. Even just tying the PS4 would put in a tie for #4 best-selling console ever in the U.S.

sales2099 said:

If Xbox can beat PlayStation in this gen NPD holiday month, I’m optimistic what can happen when MS actually has their shit together next gen.

Assuming MS doesn't make some colossal blunder this year like they did in 2013 with the XBO and Sony still plays it safe, I think the PS5 and XSX will be in a dead heat in the U.S. The XBO has sold only 14.5% fewer units in the U.S. than the PS4 so far, a ratio that hasn't changed substantially over the course of the generation. That's a loss, but not some massive gulf, and was closer than the 360-PS3 gap. The PS3 sold nearly 38% fewer units than the 360 lifetime. Sony's screw-ups at the start of Gen 7 hurt the PS3 a lot more than MS's screw-ups in 2013 hurt the XBO. It's a testament to how Xbox-friendly the NA market is.

peachbuggy said:
thismeintiel said:

Maybe not to the OG Switch model, but there was indeed a cut to the entry price point. And without that cut, it would most likely not have matched last year's numbers, let alone hit 2M.

Pure conjecture. You really can't prove it did or didn't 1 way or the other.

Him? Engage in conjecture or make baseless statements? Surely you jest. /s

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Sales numbers are after all VGC's main "thing", it's differentiating factor from basically every other gaming site out there. Makes sense that it's primarily why people come here. I ended up here back in 2009 and got hooked watching the battle between Wii/PS3/360 play out.

Here's hoping this isn't a one-off and regular NPD numbers become a thing again. Should help keep the site healthy til PS5/XSX arrive.

Unfortunately, leaks of numbers won't help much in the coming ten months, because it's likely that it's merely confirmed that Switch wins month after month. The only things that could drive a lot of activity are an unexpected PS4 win or Switch not winning big enough.

Even though the Switch will dominate 2020, hardware sales figures are still useful information as it gives us a better idea of the Switch's longer-term trajectory as it approaches mid-life, as well as what kind of legs we can expect from the PS4 & XBO now that they're in the terminal decline phase of their lives. People interested in sales data will turn out for that information if we continue to get it.



Shadow1980 said:

NPD says it's Gen 8. Nintendo agrees with them. Wikipedia considers that good enough to put the Switch in the page for Gen 8 consoles. That's infinitely more authoritative than what any individual gamer or community of gamers has to say on the matter.

Besides, the Switch launched closer to the PS4 & XBO than to the PS5 & XSX (less then 3 years, 4 months vs. at least 3 years, 8 months), and will almost certainly spend the majority of its primary lifespan (meaning pre-replacement) having competed against the PS4 & XBO. The longest gap between Nintendo consoles has been six years, meaning we realistically shouldn't expect the Switch 2 (or whatever replaces the Switch) to be out any later than 2023, at which point the PS5 & XSX will be at most only 3 years old (only 2 years, 4 months old assuming March 2023 for the Switch's successor).

And 35M in the U.S. is pretty damn good. The GBA sold over 35M in the U.S., and the Switch is lagging behind it. The Switch is outpacing the PS4 somewhat (for now), and the PS4 will likely end up at around 35M. The only three home consoles to exceed 40M in the U.S. have been the PS2 (46.7M), 360 (43.2M), and Wii (41.8M). The Switch is lagging behind the PS2 and Wii, and will eventually lag behind the 360 (look at the charts I've already posted to see what the Switch is facing in the future vs. the 360). Unless it experiences continued growth (unlikely without some kind of major stimulative factor) and/or has some absolutely insane legs, it probably isn't passing 40M in the U.S. I did once think 40M was a possibility, but only if it sold 7.5M in 2019. That didn't happen since Pokemon S&S and the Lite didn't move enough hardware in the holidays to do so, putting it at only 6.5M for the year. 35M is a much more reasonable estimate for the time being, though I'm willing to revise it upward depending on how things go for it this year. Even just tying the PS4 would put in a tie for #4 best-selling console ever in the U.S.

Where are the proof that Nintendo agree with them?

The problem with your logic is that you only count home consoles. Switch is both.

Switch is the new generation of 3DS and Wii U. 3DS is a 8gen console, you can't have Switch in the same generation as 3DS.



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

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Shadow1980 said:
Nu-13 said:

Shadow1980, the switch is not gen 8. And you're severely underestimating it's sales. Only 35m lifetime? lol

NPD says it's Gen 8. Nintendo agrees with them. Wikipedia considers that good enough to put the Switch in the page for Gen 8 consoles. That's infinitely more authoritative than what any individual gamer or community of gamers has to say on the matter.

(...)

Nintendo doesn't agree. They don't say anything because they don't care, but that's not the same as agreement.

Wikipedia is edited by its users, so the gen 8 declaration on there merely reflects the consensus that the gaming community has reached. It's a consensus that was reached based on two big assumptions, namely that Nintendo consoles have short lifespans and that the PS4 and XB1 won't be replaced until 2021/2022. If those assumptions were correct, the PS5, Xbox 4 and Switch successor would all be launching in 2021/2022 and that's why Switch had to be generation 8 to preserve alignment.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Generations are arbitrary

NSW is Nintendo's current device

PS4 is Sony's current device

XBO is Microsoft's current device

Putting a number in front of it doesnt matter, they are all current generation.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Generations are arbitrary

NSW is Nintendo's current device

PS4 is Sony's current device

XBO is Microsoft's current device

Putting a number in front of it doesnt matter, they are all current generation.

That's fine if you are consistent with it.

So in one year from now I expect you to say that Switch, PS5 and XSX are all current generation.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:
Generations are arbitrary

NSW is Nintendo's current device

PS4 is Sony's current device

XBO is Microsoft's current device

Putting a number in front of it doesnt matter, they are all current generation.

That's fine if you are consistent with it.

So in one year from now I expect you to say that Switch, PS5 and XSX are all current generation.

Yep Switch is current gen until Switch 2 releases.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Shadow1980 said:
Nu-13 said:

Shadow1980, the switch is not gen 8. And you're severely underestimating it's sales. Only 35m lifetime? lol

NPD says it's Gen 8. Nintendo agrees with them. Wikipedia considers that good enough to put the Switch in the page for Gen 8 consoles. That's infinitely more authoritative than what any individual gamer or community of gamers has to say on the matter.

Besides, the Switch launched closer to the PS4 & XBO than to the PS5 & XSX (less then 3 years, 4 months vs. at least 3 years, 8 months), and will almost certainly spend the majority of its primary lifespan (meaning pre-replacement) having competed against the PS4 & XBO. The longest gap between Nintendo consoles has been six years, meaning we realistically shouldn't expect the Switch 2 (or whatever replaces the Switch) to be out any later than 2023, at which point the PS5 & XSX will be at most only 3 years old (only 2 years, 4 months old assuming March 2023 for the Switch's successor).

And 35M in the U.S. is pretty damn good. The GBA sold over 35M in the U.S., and the Switch is lagging behind it. The Switch is outpacing the PS4 somewhat (for now), and the PS4 will likely end up at around 35M. The only three home consoles to exceed 40M in the U.S. have been the PS2 (46.7M), 360 (43.2M), and Wii (41.8M). The Switch is lagging behind the PS2 and Wii, and will eventually lag behind the 360 (look at the charts I've already posted to see what the Switch is facing in the future vs. the 360). Unless it experiences continued growth (unlikely without some kind of major stimulative factor) and/or has some absolutely insane legs, it probably isn't passing 40M in the U.S. I did once think 40M was a possibility, but only if it sold 7.5M in 2019. That didn't happen since Pokemon S&S and the Lite didn't move enough hardware in the holidays to do so, putting it at only 6.5M for the year. 35M is a much more reasonable estimate for the time being, though I'm willing to revise it upward depending on how things go for it this year. Even just tying the PS4 would put in a tie for #4 best-selling console ever in the U.S.

sales2099 said:

If Xbox can beat PlayStation in this gen NPD holiday month, I’m optimistic what can happen when MS actually has their shit together next gen.

Assuming MS doesn't make some colossal blunder this year like they did in 2013 with the XBO and Sony still plays it safe, I think the PS5 and XSX will be in a dead heat in the U.S. The XBO has sold only 14.5% fewer units in the U.S. than the PS4 so far, a ratio that hasn't changed substantially over the course of the generation. That's a loss, but not some massive gulf, and was closer than the 360-PS3 gap. The PS3 sold nearly 38% fewer units than the 360 lifetime. Sony's screw-ups at the start of Gen 7 hurt the PS3 a lot more than MS's screw-ups in 2013 hurt the XBO. It's a testament to how Xbox-friendly the NA market is.

peachbuggy said:

Pure conjecture. You really can't prove it did or didn't 1 way or the other.

Him? Engage in conjecture or make baseless statements? Surely you jest. /s

RolStoppable said:

Unfortunately, leaks of numbers won't help much in the coming ten months, because it's likely that it's merely confirmed that Switch wins month after month. The only things that could drive a lot of activity are an unexpected PS4 win or Switch not winning big enough.

Even though the Switch will dominate 2020, hardware sales figures are still useful information as it gives us a better idea of the Switch's longer-term trajectory as it approaches mid-life, as well as what kind of legs we can expect from the PS4 & XBO now that they're in the terminal decline phase of their lives. People interested in sales data will turn out for that information if we continue to get it.

Why waste time writting all that? The switch is the only 9th gen system and 35m is too low compared to what it will actually sell.