Forums - Movies Discussion - Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

Lonely_Dolphin said:
So it didn't do as well as TLJ, but what about in a vacuum? Did it still do well for movies in general? I don't follow movies so don't know the standard. It'd also be nice if we could see merchandising sales. I said earlier that Disney ultimately wins but maybe I'm mistaken, god I sure hope I am otherwise they have no reason to do better in the future.

Well, if this was a new IP, or even a so-so known one, and the budget was $200M ($300M-$400M when including marketing), this would be a good result.  Of course, considering this was a SW movie, and the budget was more like $300M (probably $450M-$500M including marketing), this is a bad result. 

As for merch, that revenue was down in 2017 and even more so in 2018.  Considering we had the massively popular Black Panther and Infinity War in 2018, SW must have been pretty low to offset the revenue from that.  Then, I believe in late 2018 or early 2019, Disney rolled their consumer products division into their parks experiences division to hide the losses.  Though, I think the last time I looked, that was down slightly, too.  Could be wrong on that.  Either way, there's a reason Disney wanted to retcon TLJ.

Signalstar said:
Massive drop from The Force Awakens +$900 million gross in 2015. Way to go Disney! 5 Star Wars movies in 5 calendar years. No danger of overexposure there. I hope George Lucas in laughing as he counts his money.

This has nothing to do with how many films they put out.  It has to do with the quality of the films.  Marvel has been putting out 2-3 films a year, and that hasn't hurt them.  Hell, they even delayed this film from May to Dec so there would be even more space between this film and the last one, since they were going with fatigue as the excuse for the films not performing well.  It didn't help.



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NightlyPoe said:
chakkra said:

There is still plenty of fun left in Star Wars. The Mandalorian and The Fallen Order proves it. It' s just this trilogy people lost interest in. And people don't usually lose interest in good things.

Oh, there can still be good stuff to enjoy on my own.  But it feels like talking about Star Wars requires donning a hazmat suit, lined with kevlar.  I mean, do we actually talk about the movies or the implications and real-world shouting matches?

Even for the Prequels, I recall being able to discuss the actual movies to a far greater degree.

Yeah, but I highly doubt that someone who actually liked TLJ and left the theater eager to watch its sequel would all of a sudden lose interest just because "it is not fun to talk about SW anymore." In fact, I'm willing to bet that the "TLJ lovers" rushed to watch its sequel first weekend just to show "the haters."



chakkra said:
NightlyPoe said:

Oh, there can still be good stuff to enjoy on my own.  But it feels like talking about Star Wars requires donning a hazmat suit, lined with kevlar.  I mean, do we actually talk about the movies or the implications and real-world shouting matches?

Even for the Prequels, I recall being able to discuss the actual movies to a far greater degree.

Yeah, but I highly doubt that someone who actually liked TLJ and left the theater eager to watch its sequel would all of a sudden lose interest just because "it is not fun to talk about SW anymore." In fact, I'm willing to bet that the "TLJ lovers" rushed to watch its sequel first weekend just to show "the haters."

Positivity is a lot more attractive than anti-negativity.  Audiences actually don't feel like being in the crossfire of warring camps strangely enough.



ROS made $15.1M on its 4th weekend. This is 31.7% lower than the $22.1M that Rogue One made in the corresponding weekend. Currently, ROS sits at $478.2M at the DBO, 0.2% higher than RO's $477.4M for the same point in time. If this continues, ROS will make end up with a DBO total of $533.3M vs RO's $532.2M.

Currently, the FBO makes up 51.7% of the WW BO. If this continues ROS will end up with a FBO total of $566.7M, 6.3% higher than RO's $532.9M. A WW BO total of $1.1B, 3.8% higher than RO's $1.06B.

I think it's safe to say that, barring any desperate rereleases of the film, it will end up lower than RO's DBO.  My guess is $510M-$520M.  I think it is also safe to say that the FBO will definitely wind up higher than RO's FBO, considering it's only $21M away from matching it, now.  My guess is $580M-$590M.  $1.1B WW seems to be the final stop.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 15 January 2020

It's just a few million away from reaching $1 billion in box office. It kinda sucks TROS won't do as well as TLJ, but considering the backlash over TLJ, it's not really surprising.



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I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.



S.Peelman said:
I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.

Saw a similar vid. If it happens, it's just desperation at this point. Endgame did the same thing to get it over Avatar. Considering Endgame was a much more popular movie, and its rerelease didn't help it too much, I doubt this will do much for ROS. The interest just isn't there.

Might help it go from a $1.1B movie to a $1.11B movie.



S.Peelman said:
I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.

If the extended cut is similar to Endgame, then there's probably just going to be some behind-the-scenes and deleted scenes after the credits and that's it.



thismeintiel said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:
So it didn't do as well as TLJ, but what about in a vacuum? Did it still do well for movies in general? I don't follow movies so don't know the standard. It'd also be nice if we could see merchandising sales. I said earlier that Disney ultimately wins but maybe I'm mistaken, god I sure hope I am otherwise they have no reason to do better in the future.

Well, if this was a new IP, or even a so-so known one, and the budget was $200M ($300M-$400M when including marketing), this would be a good result.  Of course, considering this was a SW movie, and the budget was more like $300M (probably $450M-$500M including marketing), this is a bad result. 

As for merch, that revenue was down in 2017 and even more so in 2018.  Considering we had the massively popular Black Panther and Infinity War in 2018, SW must have been pretty low to offset the revenue from that.  Then, I believe in late 2018 or early 2019, Disney rolled their consumer products division into their parks experiences division to hide the losses.  Though, I think the last time I looked, that was down slightly, too.  Could be wrong on that.  Either way, there's a reason Disney wanted to retcon TLJ.

The lack of transparency is as always annoying. We can assume the trilogy is a failure, but only Disney really knows. In a perfect world quality would determine success, but that's not the world we live in so I have to wonder about it. Doubtless there will be another Trilogy either way.

Mr.GameCrazy said:
S.Peelman said:
I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.

If the extended cut is similar to Endgame, then there's probably just going to be some behind-the-scenes and deleted scenes after the credits and that's it.

From what I've heard they were testing a bunch of different endings. Could be that, and I'm definitely curious to see what they are given the one they chose was laughable.



Lonely_Dolphin said:
thismeintiel said:

Well, if this was a new IP, or even a so-so known one, and the budget was $200M ($300M-$400M when including marketing), this would be a good result.  Of course, considering this was a SW movie, and the budget was more like $300M (probably $450M-$500M including marketing), this is a bad result. 

As for merch, that revenue was down in 2017 and even more so in 2018.  Considering we had the massively popular Black Panther and Infinity War in 2018, SW must have been pretty low to offset the revenue from that.  Then, I believe in late 2018 or early 2019, Disney rolled their consumer products division into their parks experiences division to hide the losses.  Though, I think the last time I looked, that was down slightly, too.  Could be wrong on that.  Either way, there's a reason Disney wanted to retcon TLJ.

The lack of transparency is as always annoying. We can assume the trilogy is a failure, but only Disney really knows. In a perfect world quality would determine success, but that's not the world we live in so I have to wonder about it. Doubtless there will be another Trilogy either way.

Well, if we are talking about something flopping, aka losing the studio money, it definitely wasn't that.  Well, Solo actually did lose them quite a bit of money.  However, TLJ and ROS were definitely disappointments for Disney, so in that way it was a failure.  I mean we were supposed to get two new and separate trilogies before TLJ came out, one done by Rian Johnson and another which was later going to be given to David Benioff and D.B. Weiss.  According to Kathleen Kennedy, they are done with trilogies, now.  So, it's pretty obvious these films didn't perform how they were meant to.