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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 14 December 2019

zorg1000 on 18 December 2019
curl-6 said:

I just hope Nintendo isn't ultra-stubborn and doesn't keep Switch at $300 until it's replaced. That would cripple its sales potential.

My guess

2020-pack in titles

2021-price cut to $169/$249



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Lonely_Dolphin on 18 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:
Damn, this is without a notable December game. I'd like to think this isn't the peak year, that it could be next year if Zelda releases, they announce another big gun like 2D Mario or Mario Kart, and finally have a price cut. However with these numbers being so good it makes that harder to imagine.

I think we will see pack in titles before we get a permanent price cut. Lite+Mario Kart & Hybrid+Smash Bros or something along those lines. I think that's a good way to keep sales stable if they start to drop next year and that still leaves them with the option to have their first official discounts during black friday/christmas.

As for big guns next year, I'm thinking Animal Crossing+BotW2+Pokemon DirtyDiamond/PrettyPearl.

Oh right, value bundle still hasn't happened yet. Safe to say Switch will live longer than the usual 5 year cycle for Nintendo consoles with all the cards they still have to play.

Could be Pokemon yet again, but they've had a game each year for 4 years in a row now so a break is likely, unless they've decided to go full annual which would certainly explain some things.



curl-6 on 18 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I just hope Nintendo isn't ultra-stubborn and doesn't keep Switch at $300 until it's replaced. That would cripple its sales potential.

My guess

2020-pack in titles

2021-price cut to $169/$249

I really hope so, it's insane how stubborn both Nintendo (and Sony for that matter) can be recently with pricing. No Black Friday discounts for Switch, Wii U $300 til the day it died, etc.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 18 December 2019

Lonely_Dolphin on 18 December 2019
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

My guess

2020-pack in titles

2021-price cut to $169/$249

I really hope so, it's insane how stubborn both Nintendo and Sony can be recently with pricing. No Black Friday discounts for Switch, Wii U $300 til the day it died, etc.

There was even a $350 model the day it died.



The_Liquid_Laser on 18 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

You both make a good point.  Nintendo does seem to really hate cutting the price (so does Sony for that matter), but Switch really is a much more lucrative ecosystem.  You are right they should just drop the 3DS line altogether, but they also need to have a plan to get the Lite model down to $99 at some point, like around the 6-7 year mark. 

All of those people who paid $80-$100 for the 2DS slate are never going to buy a Switch for $200 with $60 games.  And yet Switch is going to be the cheapest game system once 3DS is discontinued.  Nintendo is going to drive the low end customers out of the market unless they eventually get the Lite model down to around $99 with some "Selects" titles around $20-$30.  And Switch is a much better system to keep supporting for a long time than the 3DS is.

Hitting $99 isn't necessary, it was for the 3DS because sales were mediocre outside of Japan but Switch is a mainstream success everywhere so such drastic price cuts arent needed.

Lite at $149 with a popular game is plenty low enough with the the hybrid model unlikely to ever go under $199.

It depends on what you mean by "necessary".  Will they make a ton of profits with the Lite flooring at $149?  Yes, they definitely will.  On the other hand will  some customers leave the market for dedicated gaming devices if Nintendo only goes down to $149?  Yes, they definitely will.

Nintendo needs to be careful that they don't give low end customers to cheap alternatives like Apple Arcade or Google Stadia.  The Switch is definitely a better experience than either of those services, but if they don't go cheap enough the low end customers will go over to a cheaper, inferior experience instead.  It's a much smarter strategy for Nintendo to starve these competitors of as many customers as possible, even to the point that they make a little less money doing so.  It can drive competitors out of the market place which is much smarter in the long run.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 18 December 2019

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PortisheadBiscuit on 18 December 2019
RolStoppable said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:

There was even a $350 model the day it died.

No, there wasn't. The Wii U's price was cut to $300 in September 2013.

There was also that Smash/Splation BF bundle in 2015 for $250, that's when I finally got a Wii U lol. 



curl-6 on 18 December 2019

Short of premature replacement, I'd say price stubbornness is the biggest threat the Switch faces in the long term. Not PS5/XSX, not "no system sellers left", just Nintendo's own propensity to self-sabotage.



curl-6 on 18 December 2019
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Short of premature replacement, I'd say price stubbornness is the biggest threat the Switch faces in the long term. Not PS5/XSX, not "no system sellers left", just Nintendo's own propensity to self-sabotage.

Why do you expect price stubbornness to begin with?

The Wii U's price didn't go lower because the console had unique parts and was produced in low numbers, so there were no benefits in lower production costs due to bulk orders because there was no sense in ordering big numbers.

Switch's price is what it is because the console sells huge numbers as it is. You can't make a reasonable argument that they should have gone lower by now.

Nintendo said a few months ago that they aimed to hold their price for the long term and "improve value in other ways" didn't they?



curl-6 on 18 December 2019
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Nintendo said a few months ago that they aimed to hold their price for the long term and "improve value in other ways" didn't they?

I don't remember any statement along those lines. Here's their most recent Q&A:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/191102e.pdf

It's the final question, number 11.

Nintendo wants to sell Switch at the current price point for as long as possible which means that a hard cut is the last resort, not that it's ruled out completely. A realistic option to take before a price cut is the value-added bundle, i.e. Switch for $299 including a popular game. That's why zorg's repeated suggestion of value-added bundles in 2020 makes more sense than a price drop to $249 (hybrid) and $169 (Lite) in 2020.

I'm more worried about us hitting 2022 and the greedy bastards still selling the base Switch for $300.



p0isonparadise on 18 December 2019

Year to date.

Switch - 17,718,619
PS4 - 12,947,272
XBO - 4,391,827

2 weeks left.