Forums - Sales Discussion - October NPD 2016 predictions thread

October is a 4 weeks month


Important release:

                   

 

Possible hardware impact:

-Nintendo Switch annunced
-PlayStation VR release ($399)
-XBO bundle Gears of War 4 limited 2TB ($449); XBO bundle Battlefield 1 1TB ($349) / 500gb ($299)
- 3DS bundle Solgaleo Lunala limited ($199)

 

Last month:

[XB1] 333,000
[PS4] 285,000
[3DS] 172,000
[WIU] 36,000

 

Last year:

[XB1] 303,000
[PS4] 275,000
[3DS] 110,000
[WIU] 65,000

 

2016 predictions threads: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugust; September
2015 predictions threads: January; February; March; April; MayJune; JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

 

For more information, follow Claire on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AstronautClaire



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

Around the Network

[XB1] 300K
[PS4] 205K
[3DS] 140K
[WIU] 27K



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

XB1- 260k
PS4- 230k
3DS- 110k
Wii U- 25k



Early than i thought.

I think that both PS4 and Xbox One will be up from previous year. What did we got last year ? I think that the new UFC game was the biggest game for October(non-exclusive). Battlefield will move both consoles.

I think that the Wii U will sell more due to the announcement of the Nintendo Switch, there will be some collectors who will rush for the console.

3DS already sold more in the last months than it sold last year(due to Pokemon Go). It will sell even more than last year, the closer we get to the release of Pokemon Sun and Moon.


[XB1] 350k
[PS4] 365k
[3DS] 220k
[WIU] 70K



XB1 ~ 320k
PS4 ~ 300k
3DS ~ 160k
WiiU ~ 40k



 

Around the Network

I think everything will be lower than October 2015.

[XB1] 280k
[PS4] 245k
[WIU] 20k



PS4: 290k
XBO: 275k
3DS: 140k
Wii U: 40k



[XB1] 315K
[PS4] 228K
[3DS] 135K
[WIU] 25k



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Also, might as well post my analysis here. There won't be numbers as that would take up too much space here but the notes will be using those numbers. Remember that this is looking at weekly averages. September was a 5 week month and October is 4 weeks. So 100k in September is 20k a week, 100k in October is 25k a week. That is what this post is comparing.

Some notes:

Kind of a hit or miss month when it comes to whether the weekly average improves or not.

Xbox almost always has pretty big hardware bundles along with high selling software which has helped the brand see only 2 instances of the average dropping. The first in 2010 which came off of the Halo Reach launch and 2014 when the Xbox One came off of the Destiny launch and had announced a $50 price drop at the end of the month.

The Xbox 360 rose an average of 9%, but if you exclude 2010 it averaged closer to a 16% increase.

Since it has only been out for 2 October’s worth of data, it is handicapped. 2016 looks to be closer to how the console should sell back in 2015 than 2014. Two massive software titles are getting 2 bundles each and will continue to see great sales momentum from September. Even if you averaged both October results, the Xbox One still sees an increase of 2%.

Sony actually doesn’t fare to well going into October. Almost always sees the average drop, with both instances (Pointing out, PS has seen 2 instances of an increased average, Xbox has seen 2 instances of a decreased average. This is a further point that Xbox does really well leading up to the holidays) being in 2010, which was a flat month, and 2012, which was only by 6%.

PS3 averaged a drop of 9%.

PS4 has had both October’s drop, but 2015 was not as drastic because that it dropped to $349 at the beginning of the month. This year saw the release of the PS4 slim, which by all accounts doesn’t sound like a massive success Didn’t even break the 100K barrier, so it’s the least successful first slim revision in the modern industry, besides the Wii Mini . It’s not pushing sales on its own moreso that it’s just $299. But its weak performance might be made up for the fact that it has to replace the Black Ops 3 bundle sales, unless of course people will be holding off on buying the system until November like last year.

And VR is kind of a heated topic on how it’ll affect sales. Short answer, price of entry for NEW consumers is $799.98 (PS4 slim $299.99, PSVR Launch Bundle $499.99). I’ll let you decide if people are really going to be buying a PS4 for VR.

If you were to average the PS4, it’s a 17% drop.

Nintendo has actually suffered from what some might call “Black Friday Concentration” this generation, where holiday sales are getting concentrated more into Black Friday.

The Wii improved every year except for 2012 which was in anticipation for the Wii U. In total, it increased by an average of 7%, but without 2012 it is closer to 15%.

The Wii U has suffered drops all three years so far. 2013 was the biggest because September had a price drop and Wind Waker HD, but so it is not an accurate point of reference compared to 2014 and 2015. All three years, the drop is 14%, but without 2013 it is closer to a 4% drop.

Recap.

October is generally an improvement for Xbox and slightly worse for Sony and Nintendo with weekly averages.

October almost never equals September in pure month to month because of the different amount of weeks. Only two instances in the past 6 years did October equal September and that was the Wii in 2011 and the Xbox 360 in 2012.

- The biggest October ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 803,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 519,000 in 2007.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Xbox One ~ 350k
Ps 4 ~ 250k