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Predictions for the future - Xbox One, PS4, Wii U - My final thread.

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predictions for the future - Xbox One, PS4, Wii U - My final thread.

As my final thread on this website, before my permaban tomorrow, I'd like to post some thoughts and predictions about technology pertaining to consoles, maybe some sales predictions. None of this should be taken seriously or with any actual evidence behind it. I'm just writing things down that I feel could happen or that I think would be cool if it did.

1. Prediction: Console hardware will be refreshed every 2 years this generation.

Instead of the typical generation lasting 5-8 years before we see new hardware, the console space will get increasing pressure from other areas such as PC games, SteamMachines, etc. to stay competitive in both price and performance. As a result, hardware refreshes will happen every 2 years. Consoles will be full backwards compatible for up to 3-4 refreshes.

What this means is that a console will provide improved graphical, cpu, ram, hdd, etc each 2 years. Developers will still have a much easier time on console than PC because it will still be limited to only a few hardware configurations that will be easily scalable. The OS of consoles will help ensure compatibility over multiple hardware configurations.

This will allow consoles to match PC's in performance with a high end SKU each 2 years, while the older SKU's will offer cheaper options and still play all the same games, just not quite as high. At max, though, I would see consoles stay at $500 and the maximum amount of refreshes until games are no longer backwards compatible would be 5 refreshes. By then, new games would only be supported by the last 3-4 console versions and not the oldest one. This would be the new triggering of a "generation".

2. Prediction: Nintendo will release a new console with similar architechture to the PS4 and Xbox One within 2 years.

Don't really care if this happens or not. I just think if Nintendo wishes to remain competitive and receive support from 3rd party games, they will need a system that is comparable in performance and hardware setup. I believe the Wii U was incredibly poorly timed. They should have released it as an "HD" Wii in 2010, or they should have waited to launch alongside the PS4 and Xbox One with improved hardware. Not sure about the tablet controller, whether they should have kept it or not, but waiting a year would have decreased costs.

3. Just Thinking Out Loud: Xbox One and PS4 will see game parity by next year, with much less significant differences. Xbox One will see cloud compute boosted games by 2015.

I have no evidence for this. Purely a biased idea. I believe the Xbox One will get it's act together. The developer tools, drivers, etc will be worked out. Microsoft will allow games to use more of the GPU in the future once they are able to maintain a stable experience. Perhaps another overclock will be patched in (less likely, but I am not sure what heat output they have right now). Or maybe the PS4 will always maintain a big lead in performance and the Xbox One will be forced to rely on Kinect and Online/Cloud/Xbox Live to be differentiators.

By 2015, with the release of a future Xbox One exclusive, we will see games using cloud compute to boost performance. By 2016, multiplats will be using this to help maintain parity between versions.

4. Sales: Xbox One, PS4, Wii U sales predictions for the next 3 years.

Dec 31, 2014 LTD:

Wii U - 11 million, PS4 - 12 million, Xbox One - 10.5 million

Dec 31, 2015 LTD:

Wii U - 15 million, PS4 - 25 million, Xbox One - 23 million

Dec 31, 2016 LTD:

Wii U - 18 million (successor released by now), PS4 - 35 million, Xbox One 35 million

5. Prediction: Cloud, always online, multiplayer only games, more and more focus. Next gen will see always online, digital only, with retail discs used only as installation media.

This one pretty much speaks for itself. We will see always online, multiplayer only games/experiences become incredible more popular this generation. Using the cloud for compute, living worlds, AI, cross platform experiences, etc will become all the rave. Next gen will be all digital, with retail media only existing for those left with poor internet connections still. Games will still be playable offline, much like with Android/iOS/mobile games. However, always online capabilities and options will push everyone towards a much better experience. More power, more convenience, more connected.

Ok I'm out of stuff to think of right now...

6. Ask Nightsurge Anything! Give me a question, I'll give you my personal thoughts/opinions on it in one paragraph.

Will miss you all, VGChartz! Act quickly, you only have until sometime tomorrow to get my responses! (Yo_John, permaban me tomorrow evening, please)



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That's... actually pretty low across the board. I'd maybe multiply Wii U sales by 2 and the others by 1.5



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Ok, as this is a future thread can you make some guesses regarding the rumoured major peripherals? MS had their AR Fortaleza glasses leaked and Sony had rumours about their VR headset with move balls thing. When do you think they are coming, what will they do, and how well will they sell?



PSN: Osc89

NNID: Oscar89

What do you think will be the most famous quote to come out of this generation?



The sales predictions seem a bit off. I don't see how PS4 and Xbox One can sell the same amount in 3 years. Since they're so similar, the one with a better value will sell better (PS3 has more exclusives than 360 and the same third party games, so it sold better than 360)

The Wii U predictions are even worse. With Yarn Yoshi, X, Bayonetta 2, Donkey Kong, Smash Bros., Mario Kart, and other unannounced titles Wii U should have over 11 million sales. On December 31st, 2014 Wii U's sales should still be ahead of PS4 and Xbox One's sales by 5 million at the most. If PS4 and Xbox One are going to outsell the Wii U, mid-late 2015 would make more sense in my opinion.



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Xbone and PS4 will not be anywhere close to each other. Not even end of this year.

PS4 will outsell Xbone 2:1 beginning early next year and through its lifetime.



Who will win this gen?



"I've Underestimated the Horse Power from Mario Kart 8, I'll Never Doubt the WiiU's Engine Again"

Why are you permabanned?



1. Disagree. 2 years life cycle ? Cmon son.
2. Disagree. Nintendo will try to save the Wii U, it finally will get a 1st games, announce Wii U 2 etc. will kill Wii U at instant. Also, it is not that easy to produce new console, new games etc. They will try do defend Wii U with 1st games, like they did with Wii. Of course, Wii U will not be even close to achieve Wii sales, but it can make some money at the end of the day.
3. Who knows, we will see. I think both X1 and PS4 games will improve at all aspects. The gap ? I bet PS4 will have the advantage, u can not fake 50 % RAW power +. If u are a core gamer, worse specs, higher price and mandatory Kinect is a killing spree :( Games ? We have not even next gen consoles on the shelves, right ? Not so fast, buddy.
4. Sales predict is OK imo. I know a lot of gamers from USA who are gettin X1 for Kinect, TV service and rest. There is not so many hardcore gamers, as u can in the Internetz.



5. If that will be true, i will quit gaming and permaban myself on VGC.  I have my mind, it is my hooby not the addiction.

 

Sry for bad English, I am not native speaker + a litte drunk.



@OP

"Prediction: Console hardware will be refreshed every 2 years this generation."

Wrong, console manufacters don't make money from hardware and they actually take loses in the first years until said hardware is cheap enough to make a profit so is not in their best interest to release a beefed up console with better specs every 2 years  for the same price because their profit margins will dissapear and if they try to sell it at an increased price people won't buy them.

Apple for example releases a new phone evey year because their profit margin is very high.