As my final thread on this website, before my permaban tomorrow, I'd like to post some thoughts and predictions about technology pertaining to consoles, maybe some sales predictions. None of this should be taken seriously or with any actual evidence behind it. I'm just writing things down that I feel could happen or that I think would be cool if it did.
1. Prediction: Console hardware will be refreshed every 2 years this generation.
Instead of the typical generation lasting 5-8 years before we see new hardware, the console space will get increasing pressure from other areas such as PC games, SteamMachines, etc. to stay competitive in both price and performance. As a result, hardware refreshes will happen every 2 years. Consoles will be full backwards compatible for up to 3-4 refreshes.
What this means is that a console will provide improved graphical, cpu, ram, hdd, etc each 2 years. Developers will still have a much easier time on console than PC because it will still be limited to only a few hardware configurations that will be easily scalable. The OS of consoles will help ensure compatibility over multiple hardware configurations.
This will allow consoles to match PC's in performance with a high end SKU each 2 years, while the older SKU's will offer cheaper options and still play all the same games, just not quite as high. At max, though, I would see consoles stay at $500 and the maximum amount of refreshes until games are no longer backwards compatible would be 5 refreshes. By then, new games would only be supported by the last 3-4 console versions and not the oldest one. This would be the new triggering of a "generation".
2. Prediction: Nintendo will release a new console with similar architechture to the PS4 and Xbox One within 2 years.
Don't really care if this happens or not. I just think if Nintendo wishes to remain competitive and receive support from 3rd party games, they will need a system that is comparable in performance and hardware setup. I believe the Wii U was incredibly poorly timed. They should have released it as an "HD" Wii in 2010, or they should have waited to launch alongside the PS4 and Xbox One with improved hardware. Not sure about the tablet controller, whether they should have kept it or not, but waiting a year would have decreased costs.
3. Just Thinking Out Loud: Xbox One and PS4 will see game parity by next year, with much less significant differences. Xbox One will see cloud compute boosted games by 2015.
I have no evidence for this. Purely a biased idea. I believe the Xbox One will get it's act together. The developer tools, drivers, etc will be worked out. Microsoft will allow games to use more of the GPU in the future once they are able to maintain a stable experience. Perhaps another overclock will be patched in (less likely, but I am not sure what heat output they have right now). Or maybe the PS4 will always maintain a big lead in performance and the Xbox One will be forced to rely on Kinect and Online/Cloud/Xbox Live to be differentiators.
By 2015, with the release of a future Xbox One exclusive, we will see games using cloud compute to boost performance. By 2016, multiplats will be using this to help maintain parity between versions.
4. Sales: Xbox One, PS4, Wii U sales predictions for the next 3 years.
Dec 31, 2014 LTD:
Wii U - 11 million, PS4 - 12 million, Xbox One - 10.5 million
Dec 31, 2015 LTD:
Wii U - 15 million, PS4 - 25 million, Xbox One - 23 million
Dec 31, 2016 LTD:
Wii U - 18 million (successor released by now), PS4 - 35 million, Xbox One 35 million
5. Prediction: Cloud, always online, multiplayer only games, more and more focus. Next gen will see always online, digital only, with retail discs used only as installation media.
This one pretty much speaks for itself. We will see always online, multiplayer only games/experiences become incredible more popular this generation. Using the cloud for compute, living worlds, AI, cross platform experiences, etc will become all the rave. Next gen will be all digital, with retail media only existing for those left with poor internet connections still. Games will still be playable offline, much like with Android/iOS/mobile games. However, always online capabilities and options will push everyone towards a much better experience. More power, more convenience, more connected.
Ok I'm out of stuff to think of right now...
6. Ask Nightsurge Anything! Give me a question, I'll give you my personal thoughts/opinions on it in one paragraph.
Will miss you all, VGChartz! Act quickly, you only have until sometime tomorrow to get my responses! (Yo_John, permaban me tomorrow evening, please)
