I'm only going to list First-Party Developer games, as they're the only devs I know for sure will release PS4 games.
Assuming the PS4 launches in 2013:
- - 2013 - -
If past gens are anything to go by, then I don't expect Sony releasing anything major during the launch year Consoles are usually sold regardless of whether there are games there. Besides, it looks like Sony is trying to give the PS3 a powerful finish anyway with The Last of Us, God of War: Ascension, Beyond, the Slim, and a potential pricecut. I personally think it's smart move. Have the PS3 build up some decent momentum which could help give the PS4 an auspicous start.
- - 2014 - -
Gran Turismo 6 - This is Sony's biggest series and they'll want to get it out as soon as possible for maximum. This would have been four years after Gran Turismo 5 released. Would Polyphony Digital be able to get GT6 in 'only' four years? Well, Kaz did say GT6 wouldn't take as long as GT5, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Killzone 4 - or whatever game Guerrilla Games is working on. If this Article is accurate, then they are working Killzone 4. Killzone isn't exactly huge, but I think it has potential. Guerrilla should have plenty of time to polish the game up (Something I think they could have done better with Killzone 3), and releasing so early in the console's life cycle could give it much needed room to grow.
Sucker Punch Game - I'm not really sure what they're working on. Could be a new IP or inFAMOUS 3.
Plus multiplatform games, Move Games, low-budget exclusives and stuff like that.
- - 2015 - -
Uncharted 4 - or whatever game Naughty Dog is working on. Naughty has split up into two seperate teams, one to work on The Last of US, and one to work on something else (probably Uncharted 4). This is going to be a crucial year as well. Sony's going to need a big game for this year and Uncharted is there best option after Gran Turismo. Since Naughty Dog is split into two teams, I would say Uncharted 4 could release in 2014, but that would be unnecessary with Gran Turismo 6 releasing. It be better placed making 2015 seem appealing
Media Molecule's New IP - They've sated here that they're working on a new IP "more ambitious than LittleBigPlanet." Hmm.. wonder what they could be. They should have more than enough time to get the game out by then.
Guerrilla Games New IP - GG has also stated that they're working on a new IP. Or at least one seperate from Killzone.
Plus multiplatform games, Move Games, low-budget exclusives and stuff like that.
- - Later - -
And later, maybe a God of War releases, The Last oF Us prequel or something, and the cycle repeats itself
- - - - - - - - -
Developers I didn't mention who could release a few exclusives:
Quantic Dream - They seem to be pretty happy with Sony right now. Will they continue to make Sony Exclusives in the future? I don't know
Insomniac - They did state that they're done with resistance and that they're moving multiplatform, but they're still making a new Ratchet & Clank Game. Will they release some PS4 exclusives? I don't know
Other Developers - I could see Sony hiring a smaller second-party or third-party developer to make some Sony IPs. For example, a LittleBigPlanet PS4 game. LBP doesn't seem like a difficult game to make. After all, Media Molecule is an incredibly small team. There's also developers like the PABR devs and the Sly 4 devs. Who knows if they'll stick around.
What do you think? Do you think this seems realistic?