Nintendo already talking about disrupting themselves.

[Erik Aston]

Bump.

Just going back over this...

1. AC City Folk. The thing that hurts this is that the microphone isn't included. It sells seperately for $30. Other than that, I think this is a home run. I really think the online aspect is positioned to perform a job that no other game is currently performing, and that may help it outsell the DS version.

2. Wii Sports Resort/MotionPlus. This is the one in particular which is just a sustaining innovation. While this game may be very successful, selling 10M+ copies, observe how the reactions to the series change. At E3 2006, Wii Sports creates a mad rush like E3 had never seen. At E3 2008, MotionPlus really excites people and is "one of the major announcements." But if Nintendo pushes Wii Sports 3, even more improved, at E3 2010, people will just roll their eyes and scoff.

3. Wii Music. I'm getting more and more convinced this is a bust. I don't think GH and Rock Band are too difficult for people, and I think they perform both potential jobs (getting the thrill of music performance; entertainment in a social setting) better than Wii Music will. I suppose the game could entertain very little children for hours, but if so, it's going to bother parents like Casio keyboard presets. So this is the only one of the three I don't think will sell 10M copies.


All of these games fall squarely in the first two stages of Blue Ocean strategy, or in the second stage of disruption strategy. Only after all three stages of the strategies have played out would Nintendo move onto the next blue ocean or the next disruption.

In Blue Ocean terms, these games focus on first and second tier non-customers: fringe gamers and non-gamers, respectively. But the third tier moves on to non-gaming industries, which these games don't appear to represent.

In disruptive terms, Nintendo are in the second phase, asymmetric war, where they always win due to their unique values, motivations and processes. But MS and Sony are only now making their responces to the initial Wii disruption, and these games fall squarely in the role of building the new market--from the low to the fairly high-end--for the new market values.

So why on earth did Reggie jump ahead to talk of Nintendo disrupting themselves? I suppose I shouldn't overanalyze those comments, but nonetheless, I don't see anything from this year's E3 that represents the next phase of Nintendo's strategy. Why not talk about the success of MK Wii and Wii Fit, and bill these three games as the continuation of that part of the strategy, which is what they appear to be.