The Wii Peak (How High It Gets, When It Occurs/08' Holiday Potential)

[thekitchensink]

I do agree that '09 will likely be the Wii's peak, but I honestly can't see '08 having to do with it, personally. I think that '09, as a whole, has the potential to be ever so slightly higher than '08 as a whole.

Here's my reasoning:

As you said, there are many big games coming out this year. But one thing that your analysis didn't take into account (at least from the way I read it) was that a much larger proportion of these games will be bridge- and core-gamer games that this year has been lacking.

Of course we've had Brawl, Kart, and gems like Okami, and there will likely be some great surprises for the holiday season this year. But let's not kid ourselves--this year was the year of the casual crap for Wii. Just judging by noname's thread of upcoming Wii games for next year (which, though colossal, is still woefully incomplete), there are many more serious games coming out. This generation, there's been an appalling amount of gamers who hate on the Wii because of all the crap that's been coming out (and I can see where some are coming from). But it's getting tons of RPGs, platforming games, music games, features keep getting added, there's a respectable amount of shooters, online is improving ever so slowly--all of these things, if properly marketed, will begin to draw the attention of the gamers who wouldn't have even given the console a second look at purchase time.

I don't think quite as many soccer moms will buy Wii next year, because Wii Fit is already out and many who buy the new 'Wii' series games will already have one by then. That said, I think my previous paragraph, combined with higher shipment levels, could be enough to put next year slightly ahead of this one.