The Wii Peak (How High It Gets, When It Occurs/08' Holiday Potential)

[TheSource]

Starting right about now, through this time in 2009, I think Wii sales will see their absolute peak, centered on holiday 2008.

For calendar 2008 I have Wii at ~10-14m in the Americas. The following year, I think it will do  ~12-15m in the Americas but most of that will be early in the year when supply is still being met, then we'll see something like a split between 2007 and 2008 sales for Jun-Oct 2009 before another big, but not quite as big holiday season in 2009 (vs. 2008). In a 12 month sequence, I have the Wii peak at ~13-17m in the Americas from say this June-Aug (2008) to May-July (2009).  Somewhere in this peak, I think it may be possible for Wii to top 1m units in the Americas in a four/five week non-holiday month. If I'm right, its probably safe to expect Wii to not get a price cut until at least ~2010/2011 in the Americas. We'll have to see though, especially since E3 is right around the corner, followed by shipment results, and the accompanying updated shipment predictions from the big three.

I'm less certain how the peak will work worldwide...but I suspect the peak in Japan was in 2007, or else it will be this year. The realistic range for Japan for Wii is probably 3m-5m at this point unless something huge is revealed at E3. Monster Hunter 3, Animal Crossing, Pikmin, Wii Music,  Kirby, Disaster and Final Fantasy: CC all by themselves should be able to keep Wii trucking at 30k-50k in non-holiday periods for another 18 months (assuming the titles are released inside that window). Titles beyond those could lead to a Wii peak in 2009 even though the concentrated blow of Smash-Mario Kart-Wii Fit was largely felt in 2008 to push Wii sales up. My gut says though that Wii peaks in Japan in 2008 at ~4.5m. Japan will likely be the first region to see Wii price cuts as well.

In Others, looks like Wii will do 9.5-11.5m in 2008. Wii is ~$360 in the UK so I don't think Wii hits its peak in Europe in 2008 simply because of pricing.

Nintendo is projecting to ship 25m Wiis from Apr 08' to Mar 09'. It shipped ~4.3m Wiis from Jan 08' to Mar 08'. If we assume 5m Wiis from Apr 08' to Mar 09' are saved for Jan-Mar 09', then only 24.3m Wiis will ship in Jan-Dec 2008. My range for sell through is 22.5m to 30.5m. With maybe 1-2m Wiis sitting on shelves worldwide at any point in time, the max seems to be ~26.3m for sell through in 2008 unless Nintendo raises its projection.

Given that Nintendo is reportedly only making 2.4m Wiis a month now, you have to figure one of two things is going to happen:

1) Nintendo should ramp us supply at least once more before the year is out for the holiday season. At ~650k-850k in the Americas during normal months it woud be pretty easy for Nintendo to sell 3-4m Wiis in December alone in the Americas, and 4.5m to 6m in the final nine weeks of 2008 in the Americas. That would require nearly all the capacity/or more than capacity for current production levels though, so Nintendo is either saving say 300k-450k/month now or...

2) Nintendo will ramp up supply. Alot. For 30m Wiis in sellthrough to be doable, shipments would need to be something like:

4.3m Jan-Mar

~6m Apr-Jun

7.2m July-Sept

15m Oct-Dec

(32.5m shipped in calendar 2008)

Hard to say how the last part would be handled, but with 2.4m/month being produced...at a minimum we should see this:

4.3m Jan-Mar

~6m Apr-June

~7.2m July-Sept

~7.2m Oct-Dec

(24.7m shipped in calendar 2008)

What Nintendo should do though is this, if at all possible

4.3m Jan-Mar

~6.3m Apr-June

~8.7m July-Sept

~11.5m Oct-Dec

(30.8m shipped in calendar 2008)

In this case though, capacity is raised more slowly, by (very roughly) 1/3 each quarter. With 2009 likely to be the inverse of 2008 in the first three quarters (biggest Jan-Mar for Wii (5m?), then Mar-Jun on par with 08' (6.5m), July-Sept down from 08' (7.5m), Oct-Dec' down from 08' but still ~10m in a quarter potentially) I think this last scenario is the one Nintendo will shoot for.

 

Despite all the math above, my hunch still says its likely we'll end up seeing Wii ship 28m-35m in Apr 09' to Mar 10', meaning this year won't be the peak.