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Legend11 said:
I think the mainstream media is just playing into the new craze of casual gamers, I mean it wasn't Super Mario Galaxy or Super Smash Brothers Brawl or Halo 3 or Killzone 2 that is getting all the attention, it's Wii Fit. A game that makes a person ask (well it makes me ask anyways) what kinds of new gamers it's going to attract and what will keep them "gaming" when the novelty of Wii Fit and the WiiBoard is over and they grow bored of the game. Will those "gamers" (many likely females middle aged and otherwise that go after the latest fitness craze) stick with the system and buy other games that take advantage of the WiiBoard like a skateboarding or surfing title when the novelty of Wii Fit wears off? I really can't see it.

Something about this entire casual gamer crazy has been bothering me and I could never figure out what it was and it's finally come to me, history is actually repeating itself. When I was very young my parents bought an Atari 2600 and my entire family played it because it was a new experience. Eventually though my mother and stepfather grew bored of the system and that was the end of their gaming for awhile, my siblings and I though continued to get new games and use it.

Then years later my mom picked up a NES with the light gun and super mario brothers /duckhunt and my mom and stepfather were fascinated with the light gun and with super mario brothers and we'd all play it and have competitions. They eventually got bored of it, stopped gaming, and it was my siblings and I left yet again with the system and buying games for it.

Now it's the time of the Wii with it's motion sensing Wiimote that is fascinating the non-gaming moms, fathers, grandmothers, grandfathers, etc (and likely mine this Christmas when they get one) and the WiiBoard that is doing the same with a subset of those non-gamers. Now I have to ask, what is going to keep their attention (say my mother and stepfather) for the long haul this time around where the original Atari 2600 and Nintendo super mario brothers/duckhunt failed? I can't help but think eventually when the novelty of these things wear off they'll become bored yet again and the videogame system of the day will be abandoned just like the previous two times. Only this time it might be a lot worse because many videogame companies changing over to get in on the attention and noise being generated by the casual gamers will be left holding the bag with casual games and the audience for them gone.

Anyways sorry for the long post but that's just what I think is going to happen. Please understand that I'm not trying to bash the Wii or anything, if I was it would mean I was bashing the NES which was one of my favorite systems ever, I'm just letting out what I think is going to happen. The casual gamers will eventually abandon us yet again and it may hurt gaming a lot this time (a boom before a bust).

 Difference is its Nintendo leading the Casual charge, and so there won't be a bust right now because people know when they buy Nintendo games they'll get a good game and often a great game, the problem with the bust in the 80's was quality was bad across the board



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)