When will the Switch pass 160M?

[Jumpin]

A few notes:

1. There are variables whose impacts we don't know yet (India/Indonesia release, the cutting of official supplies to Europe)
2. We really only have a single year over year quarter since the Switch 2 released, and even that isn't a full post-Switch 2 release quarter.

But, right now, the year over year quarterly decline is about 0.68, which if calculated for quarterly declines predict Switch passing 160 million in autumn next year, and will go on to sell ~163 million by 2031 (5 years from now).

But the picture will become clearer by February or May 2027 for how much the Switch will ultimately sell (as that will include a quarter and change of Oceanian/South Asian sales... They might be negligible, they might be a few million. This is applying a decay constant of 0.68... (whatever Q2-2026/Q2-2025 works out to). So, a very narrow data set to predict the future. A full second year of Switch 2 would be better.

2026	Jan-Mar	550,000	155,920,000
	April - June	670,000	156,590,000
	July - Sept.	622,143	157,212,143
	Oct. - Dec.	929,796	158,141,939
2027	Jan-Mar	376,020	158,517,959
	April - June	458,061	158,976,020
	July - Sept.	425,343	159,401,363
	Oct. - Dec.	635,677	160,037,040
2028	Jan-Mar	257,075	160,294,115
	April - June	313,164	160,607,279
	July - Sept.	290,795	160,898,075
	Oct. - Dec.	434,595	161,332,670
2029	Jan-Mar	175,755	161,508,426
	April - June	214,102	161,722,528
	July - Sept.	198,809	161,921,337
	Oct. - Dec.	297,121	162,218,458
2030	Jan-Mar	120,159	162,338,617
	April - June	146,376	162,484,993
	July - Sept.	135,921	162,620,914
	Oct. - Dec.	203,134	162,824,048
2031	Jan-Mar	82,150	162,906,198
	April - June	100,073	163,006,271
	July - Sept.	92,925	163,099,196
	Oct. - Dec.	138,877	163,238,074

Last edited by Jumpin - on 15 August 2026