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[EricHiggin]

haxxiy said:

EricHiggin said:

Possibly, but what's to say China never goes AI crazy in the (somewhat) near future like America has, if not worse? Perhaps China could eventually build manufacturing faster than AI was growing, but that would still mean that we may be in this bubble for quite a bit longer than some may anticipate.

China is very AI crazy, they just don't have the capacity to build out high-end compute (no native EUV, not even native DUV yet), so at the moment their main focus is robotics. They have way more robots than anywhere else in the world.

Once they have DUV by 2028 or so they'll build their own Ampere/Hopper equivalents, and with EUV in the early 2030s, their Blackwell/Rubin ones, probably at an absurd scale and relatively low prices.

Of course by then TSMC/Intel/Samsung will have also increased 100x their chip-production capacity vs. today's (adjusted per GB and FLOPS) so I doubt the shortages will last that long.

JEMC said:

EricHiggin said:

Possibly, but what's to say China never goes AI crazy in the (somewhat) near future like America has, if not worse? Perhaps China could eventually build manufacturing faster than AI was growing, but that would still mean that we may be in this bubble for quite a bit longer than some may anticipate.

As haxxiy said, China is all in on AI, it's just that instead of having new companies doing it like in the west with OpenAI or Anthropic, it's been driven by "the usual" (bilibili, Bytedance, Alibaba, etc.). After all, Deepseek came from China, remember?

But China's biggest problem is that they don't have access to HBM, as the last article from Jizz news post shows, the kind of memory that Nvidia uses for its datacenter/AI GPUs, and the kind of memory that the big memory manufacturers have decided to focus on during the AI craze, leaving room for CXMT and others like YMT to grow making regular DDR & LPDDR memory used not just on desktops and laptops, but also servers.

So, if those chinese companies are making enough memory to not only provide for the domestic market but also to sell it to companies like Lenovo or MSI to make products that will be sold in Asia and Europe, it means that they have enough capacity for it, and growing.

As Haxxiy said, China doesn't have the manufacturing (tech) to directly compete just yet. Once they do, soon enough, then they'll be off to the races. So as bad as things are now for consumers, they will likely get worse as time goes on.

To also assume that the regular players will have expanded production so much that there won't be shortages is a poor assumption. It's not like they didn't see this coming for a while now, yet their expansion efforts have been pitiful in comparison. Which they explain is on purpose because they can't guarantee constant success in the AI race, and don't want to end up with endless capacity and a slowing AI economy, or worse, a crash for their major Western AI customers because China vastly outpaces them or flat out ends up winning the AI race altogether.

Which also brings up the question of how far is the West, especially the USA, willing to go to make sure that doesn't happen? Would they do so mostly legitimately or would they try and interrupt China by different means, like even higher tariffs or flat out software and hardware bans? America is already doing that do a degree.

Last edited by EricHiggin - on 16 July 2026