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Kyuu on 01 July 2026
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BraLoD said:
Kyuu said:

Yeah but OP asked us to assume a November 2026 console release date to narrow down the variables. So it was like a thread rule that you kept ignoring lol. And don't be sneaky! You said "70M" would be completely impossible without a day 1 PC release, not "80M" 😜

PS4 and PS5's software sales are individually higher than PS3 and X360 combined, and one of the reasons why is that there were a lot more multi-console owners then compared to now, so spending was less concentrated and hardware more inflated as a measure of userbase. And of course GTA is way bigger now, and no PS6 version is being announced just months later to damage short term legs this time around (not that it matters; a $1000 PS6 wouldn't affect PS5's engagement the way PS4 affected PS3). All of this could propel GTA6 to achieve a much higher attach rate than GTA5.

The bad news though is that it won't sell anywhere close to as many consoles as I had expected one or two years ago. Hardware is too expensive now and we're only heading to darker times.

There are people talking about 80M here too, but sure, 70M is impossible too without PC until 2027 ends.

GTA V sales picked up tremendously post covid, massive discounts and people triple or quadruple diping, when it was available now on 7 platforms. It was selling 10M a year from 2016 to 2017, it is selling 20M a year since PS5 launched and those kicked it.

That's what I've always been saying, the attach rate people expect based on sales solely on PS5 and XBS, the only two platforms it has always been announced for, is not something GTA V was able to pull so quick, GTA VI will simply run out of potential customers to reach those numbers so fast as people expect.

My first response to someone in this thread is about the game being able to reach 100M+ sales once a PC version is available and enough time has passed and 10th is possibly available.

GTA VI will have more frontloaded sales than V, it seems pretty clear people are really jumping into it, but the install base difference between GTA V and GTA VI is so, so big that expecting it to pull in 1 year numbers GTA V pulled 3 to 4 years when it only have PS5 and XBS install base to do it sounds like way too much of a reach, and that people don't understand that GTA V sells so much because it has had many re-releases and so much repeat sales to the same customer over the years.

GTA VI is a more desired producted now than GTA V ever was, but it won't just sell to everyone that has a PS5 and XBS within a single year. I'm not buying it myself until it has an actual physical media and has substantial discounts.

I think we're starting to go in circles but to keep it simple, you're stretching the meaning of impossible and perhaps GTA6 will prove it, we'll see. It's pretty obvious to me that a day 1 PC release on Nov 2026 isn't required for 70 million to be theoretically achievable. For anyone expecting 70 million on consoles alone (prior to the RAM/NAND crisis), they were probably 20~ million too positive but I still wouldn't label it "impossible". GTA6 is a fundamentally different beast.