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Kyuu on 30 June 2026
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BraLoD said:
Kyuu said:

When you insisted it was impossible for the game to sell 70 million by 2028, you initially said it could only happen if the PC version is released simultaneously with consoles "later this year". But it turns out you expected it to release in April "next year" on consoles.

I don't expect a hypothetical Switch 2 version to release next year. But the PC version is inevitable, if not in 2027 then in 2028 or later. The general assumption was that it gets released in November 2026 on consoles and around a year (or less) later on PC. So almost everyone made their prediction with these conditions in mind. Whether or not a PC version is released in 2027 makes a huge difference in how much it can sell.

Personally, I initially expected the PC version to release by November 2027. But following the recent data about GTA5's revenue splits and Rockstar's comments, I'm now skeptic it's coming that soon. I expect the PC release would add 20-25 million if released in November 2027.

Yes, I've always expect it to be delayed again into 2027. The console version. And as I believed it, my predictions were always made around it. You can see I'm talking about consoles and even reflecting splits.

But GTA VI will have 2 holidays for its 1 year and 1 month sales period, my original estimate was about April to December as what 2027 was concerned, and April to March to what a full year was concerned. Which I believed over 40M sales was too much. 50M with 2 holidays is not impossible and I'll admit I'm a bit more influenced by the hype to raise it so much.

And yes, even when its already being sold and will release this year, giving it 2 holydays, 80M is still pretty much impossible without PC. That's more than half the PS5 + XBS install base, it just don't work like that, GTA V was crossing those numbers with 4 consoles and nearly 4 years of sales, in mid 2017.

If there is no PC version by the end of 2027 I expect sales to considerably slow as soon as early 2028, after the holidays, as so much of the console userbase will already have bought it that's only natural.

Yeah but OP asked us to assume a November 2026 console release date to narrow down the variables. So it was like a thread rule that you kept ignoring lol. And don't be sneaky! You said "70M" would be completely impossible without a day 1 PC release, not "80M" 😜

PS4 and PS5's software sales are individually higher than PS3 and X360 combined, and one of the reasons why is that there were a lot more multi-console owners then compared to now, so spending was less concentrated and hardware more inflated as a measure of userbase. And of course GTA is way bigger now, and no PS6 version is being announced just months later to damage short term legs this time around (not that it matters; a $1000 PS6 wouldn't affect PS5's engagement the way PS4 affected PS3). All of this could propel GTA6 to achieve a much higher attach rate than GTA5.

The bad news though is that it won't sell anywhere close to as many consoles as I had expected one or two years ago. Hardware is too expensive now and we're only heading to darker times.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 30 June 2026