I don't think we get a Switch 2 Lite until the Switch 1 is no longer selling as much software. This FY Nintendo is still saying the Switch 1 software will sell a lot more than Switch 2 software. The Switch Lite came out when the 3DS no longer had software releases and was 1 year before Nintendo stopped 3DS production. I can see the same here where 2028 is the earliest they'll introduce a Switch 2 Lite at $100 less than the base model. Right now Nintendo has a cheap system with a huge library that is still getting a lot of games this year as a cheap alternative. Until people stop buying it I think Nintendo is fine with keeping the Switch 1 as their cheap entry system and the Switch 2 as the new premium system.
I think as long was the Switch 1 remains at it's price point going into the holiday season we may see it sell as much if not more than last year. Switch 2 I think will sell on par from last year, while despite GTA 6 both Xbox Series and PS5 will decline.







