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Good month for the Switch 2. May will be super strong for it though sales in Japan will slow down a lot after that month and sales will slow down to a lesser extent elsewhere after August. In NA and Europe sales will be boosted for the next few months since people will want to buy one before the increase so 2027 will be a strong test for the Switch 2. The hardware won't be as appealing price wise and everyone who got early to get ahead of a price increase will done that already so it'll be all down to natural demand from that point. Ideally that year will be very strong in terms of first party releases with things like the next 3D Mario making up for the price increase weakening sales.
The PS5 collapsed more than I expected. I thought May would be like this since the price increase didn't take affect everywhere in April right away so sales starting that month could get real rough. It still will have a good holiday this year with GTA 6 and presumed holiday discounts but that'll probably be the last time PS5 sales are good. 2027 should be easily under 10m. Playstation will still be fine for now since the PS5 has built up a large install base but Sony could have some real trouble building up a large install base for the PS6 with the way pricing is going.
Xbox Series had its first sub 100k month so if it gets another price increase then oh boy. The Series S being the cheapest way to play GTA 6 could still do something for it this holiday but it wouldn't matter at all in the grand scheme of things and its weekly sales in Europe not changing even after the the PS5 got a big price increase is a bad sign for the potential impact of that since even even being notably cheaper than the PS5 didn't make any difference for it. Also it's wild it sold only half the Switch 1 did this month.
The Switch 1 is the same as usual though interestingly while Tomodachi Life give it a small boost in Japan it didn't really have an impact elsewhere other than maybe a slight one in Europe. Sales in Japan will tank after May so it should fall into the 100-150k range for the next stretch. It sold better than the DS did in April 2012 but it'll likely go back to doing worse than the DS soon which is notably below what is required for 160m.
Overall a rough month for console hardware. With the PS5, Xbox Series and Switch 1 all being 40-50% down YoY things would be looking dreadful if not for the Switch 2. If the PS6 doesn't come out next year then it's gonna need to carry all of 2027 on its back despite most likely selling worse that year than this year and even if it did it'd still need to carry things January-October. It could very well end up having to carry the console hardware market from now till November 2028 with the holiday season this year being the only exception.
Last edited by Norion - 8 hours ago
