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Norion on 08 May 2026
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firebush03 said:
Norion said:

For the Switch 1 they failed to reach the revised down forecast and are increasing its price in Japan soon which will tank its sales in the last major region it's still doing decently so that's truly the end of any last hopes of it reaching 160m. The 2m forecast is a little higher than I expected but it's very possible they miss it and 2m wouldn't be enough since after March next year shipments of the Switch will be very low. The DS shipped a bit more than 2m from April 2012 till March 2013 but shipped basically nothing afterwards. It'll still get to 158m though which is amazing.

I noticed that too about NS1, how the forecast for FY27 seems a bit optimistic coming off 0.55M this most recent quarter. I've got two theories: (i) This is just another instance of Nintendo overprojecting NS1 shipment figures to aleviate stock blowback from YoY drops in NS2 hardware projections, or (ii) Nintendo cut back on supply during this quarter perhaps as a means to save on production costs, waiting to have a clearer image on whether recent production cost hikes would be short enough to avoid or not.

Seeing as price hikes are now being enforced, I think its safe to say their strategy of waiting didn't pay off and production costs aren't going down anytime soon. Could also explain somewhat the shortage in NS2 systems ever since the launch of Pokopia despite moving only 2.93M hardware units.

I think a part of it could be that 2m is a nice clean figure and falling somewhat short of that forecast wouldn't impact anything since the investors will only care about the Switch 1 software sales at this point. Considering the trend the past couple years I don't really see any chance of them exceeding the forecast.