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I think Mario Maker 3 could happen this year, I know that rumor is floating out there now too.

It would work well with the Switch 2's mouse controls for one, second the Mario Galaxy movie has a ton of Mario Maker references in it, not just like one "wink wink" kind of reference but like several.

Also the dev time line would fit ... the last Mario Maker game was in 2019 which is now seven years ago, and even for 2D Mario, Mario Wonder is coming up on 3 years ago. They should have ample time to make a new Mario Maker, I guess the big question would be would they consider having 3D Mario courses.