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curl-6 2 days ago
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Pemalite said:
curl-6 said:

I think he likely has some sort of source as he's been reliably able to call Nintendo Directs days before they happen for a number of years now, and he even leaked the exact day of Switch 2's reveal. The odds of him just happening to guess all that seem low.

Thing is, no leaker, even if they do have a source, is going to be 100% accurate cos their source may not be high up enough in the industry to know everything.

I would agree that it is best to take all leaks with a grain of salt, but personally I'd put a lot more stock in Nate's word than say Moore's Law is Dead.

And yet. He still gets stuff wrong... Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Making predictions and getting them right is actually relatively easy if you understand a few triggers.

Case in point... On this forum I predicted that NAND and Ram would increase in price a year before it actually happened. How?
Educated guess and seeing market conditions starting to change.

That didn't make me a leaker. That made me a "speculator".

Nate is using a similar tactic, difference with him is that he has specialized in Nintendo platforms, I am specialized in PC hardware.

I find it unlikely that one could guess Direct/reveal dates so consistently based on speculation alone, because there are a LOT of people who try to do this and almost all of them are wrong the majority of the time, yet Nate's hit rate on these remains remarkably high. He's not always right when it comes to leaks, but he's right more often than I'd attribute to luck alone.

I don't think it's that far fetched that he might know somebody who does marketing somewhere and so way gets leads that way, for instance.