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FlashmanHarry on 22 March 2026
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trunkswd said:
XtremeBG said:

You mean 156.12M right ? They were 152.12M as of March 31st 2025. They originally forecasted 4.5M which would lead them to 156.62M, however they adjusted down their forecast to 4M, and meeting it will result in 156.12M. So almost 4M left if they meet that 4M forecast..

Ah damn yes you are right. My bad.

With that a 50% drop would mean 158.12m as of March 2027, 159.12m as of March 2028, 159.62 in March 2029, then 250K for another 50% drop would be 159.87M in March 2030. Unless Nintendo keeps manufacturing them until like 2030 the drop in reality needs to be a bit less than 50% to reach 160 million.

45% drop would be 2.2M for 158.32 in March 2027, then 1.21M for a total of 159.53M in March 2028, then 0.665M for a total of 160.195M in March 2029.

One thing to be mindful is the stock Nintendo would have in warehouses. This time last year the Switch was Nintendos primary console and, they probably would have about 2 million consoles in warehouses worldwide. Now that the Switch 2 is the primary console the original switches in warehouses is probably 0.5 to 1 million (probably closer to the 0.5 million). So even if the Switch ships 4 million for the current fiscal year, It's true sales are probably 1 to 1.5 million more then 4m. 

So if you use the your 50% reduction prediction. It becomes a lot more interesting if your going off a 5m to 5.5m figure instead of 4m.