| Zippy6 said: It's definitely not going to break even at just 2m copies sold. The same person who says they heard it has 1.5m sales also said it needs to sell 4.5-5m to break even on it's $100m budget. Once you take into account manufacturing, transport and crucially the retailers cut Nintendo will make far less than $51 profit from each physical copy sold. It's also already receiving big discounts, Amazon UK is currently selling it for only £31. The industry wouldn't be in anywhere near as much trouble if 2m sales would cover a $100m budget.
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I strongly doubt it needs 4.5-5 million to break even. The $51 per copy estimate was already accounting for retail, manufacturing and transportation cuts.
For first party titles Nintendo gets like 80% of the revenue from the sale. For digital it is closer to 100%. Assuming first three weeks sold mostly at $70 and $60 respectively. That would be about $56 per SW2 physical copy and $48 per SW1 physical copy, assuming Nintendo gets 80% of the revenue. But of course a significant share of the sales are digital, where they get near 100%.
Third party games need to sell a lot more to meet a budget because the platform holder takes like a 30% of the revenue. But in this case Nintendo is also the platform holder.
They also tend to sell for a lower average price than Nintendo games.
Also many games that break even are still disappointments and don't get sequels because publishers don't want to just break even, they want to make profits, so 2 million sales would be a disappointment for many $100 million budget games even if there is no loss. In Metroid's case it is a complementary good (diversity library and IPs, sell SW2's, etc) so Nintendo might be fine with breaking even.
Last edited by sc94597 - 22 hours ago
