How much will the PS5 sell in 2026?

[Norion]

Otter said:

Norion said:

3. A big question is how big that playerbase will still be by November, same goes for how many people are still playing GTA 5 on the PS4 or are even interested in GTA in general. I imagine that the average person still using the PS4 this late is just not gonna bother ever getting a PS5 which is why I don't think the COD this year not coming to PS4 and Xbox One is gonna matter since BO7 sold barely anything on those systems. Many will switch platforms, be less interested in video games compared to when they got a PS4 or wait for a PS6 instead.

If they're still actively using the PS4 I don't think there's reason to doubt that many (a majority - 50%+) will update at some point. Some may get a Switch 2, others a PC or use an existing laptop but I think there's still a heathy number who are waiting to get a PS5 and want to stay in the console space (hence them still playing PS4)

I think people overestimate how compelling the current gen has been for a lot of gamers. No exclusive COD, no exclusive GOW, No exclusive Naughty Dog game, No exclusive guerilla game/Horizon, Not even an exclusive Resident Evil thus far... I could go on. Probably the biggest game so far has been Hogwarts for the 3months it wasn't on PS4/Xbox and even then it was already announced for those platforms, so plenty would of waited.

Using UK data as reference "One industry summary noted PS5 sales were up around five-times year-on-year in February 2023 when the game was the best-selling title — suggesting strong hardware movement in the same window". Stock improvements also helped with this. But there's a still a lot that compelling software can do in shifting people over.

Of course I think the majority has shifted to current gen, but even if GTA was to activate 2-3 % of gamers holding off for the right time, that can still be several million extra sales units.

I actually wanted to pull COD UK sales data to look at the split but I could only find Fifa 26:

Fifa 26: PS5 54%, Switch 20%, PS4 15%, Switch 2 7% (this is last week in physical sales)

15% doesn't sound like a lot but if 15% of GTA6 launch week audience is on last gen, that'd equate to at least 1.5-2m users. Enough to really shift a holiday sales period.

There will still be some upgrading of course, it's just doubtful to me that most of the remaining users will buy a PS5 this late in its life when its even more expensive than it used to be cause at least some will have been waiting for price drops that haven't happened. For the compelling software part the thing is that this late in the life-span new games don't boost hardware sales nearly as much as games do earlier on cause of factors like saturation.

In the UK PS5 was 70% of BO6 physical sales at launch while PS4 was only 4% and the total was 59% lower than the PS4 sales for MWIII so the discrepancy will presumably have been even bigger last year for BO7. The vast, vast majority of COD console players will already have a current gen console as a result so the boost the 2026 COD has will be much smaller than the one Infinite Warfare had back in 2016. 

For the 15% example it's important to keep in mind that a chunk of those people wouldn't bother getting a PS5 cause many won't want or even be able to get a console that costs a few hundred and a portion of the rest will get a PS5 this year before that happens reducing the potential pool of buyers by then. Now GTA 6 will still have an impact of course, I just expect closer to an extra 1m this holiday period than that much since that would still be a big deal.

Last edited by Norion - 4 days ago