Will PS5 beat PS2 numbers, if PS6 is delayed?

[Shadow1980]

Highly unlikely. Simply having a protracted life cycle doesn't guarantee it will set a new record. If the PS5 gets pushed to 2030, it could just as easily continue to decline at a high enough rate that won't be enough to get it anywhere close to 160M, especially if Sony doesn't cut its price any. Considering the current economic environment, with Trump's needless trade wars and now also "A.I." blowing up the cost of various components, they may very well just decide to keep the price what it is aside from the odd promotion just to maintain profitability on the hardware. That right there is an immediate obstacle.

To compare it to another long-lived system, the PS5 is trailing the Switch, even if we align by first full Q2, thus giving the PS5 a slight advantage. This deficit will probably continue to grow as the PS5 will likely decline further this year and next year, while the Switch managed substantial momentum into its sixth and seventh years (Hey, you in the back! No giggling!), with over 35.8M units shipped in 2022 & 2023. The PS5 is currently tracking about on par with the PS4 through Q1 2024 to Q3 2025, so if it roughly maintains that same level of sales it will ship only 14.5-15M unit this year. That will still put it at maybe 107-108M lifetime, and with a deficit of over 14.5M against the Switch. Even if it declines only 20% each year through 2029, it will have already started to pull ahead of the PS4 by the end of next year (the PS4's legs were cut off due to COVID-induced shortages and supply that was wiped out by the surge in demand in Q2-Q3 2020), but that will still put it at a growing deficit against the Switch each year through 2028. It could start to narrow the gap in 2029, but by that point it'll be too late as the PS6's release would be imminent, causing an immediate decline in PS5 sales. I don't expect the system to have good legs, seeing as few systems ever really do these days (the PS2 was the last to have good legs). So, if the PS5 can't beat the Switch, then it can't beat the PS2. To be fair, the Switch lasted eight years and three months before being replaced rather than a full decade, but I don't think an extra 21 months on the market will be enough for the PS5 to fully close the gap.

And that rate of decline could be even higher than 20% per year. That's probably optimistic. Again, the price is a serious obstacle, and given poor consumer sentiment right now that could hobble the PS5. If it remains at its current price for the next several years, that will make it the most expensive console ever for a system later in life, even adjusted for inflation. The PS3 & 360 previously held that distinction. By the end of 2012, the PS3 had the Super Slim model available starting at $270, which is $380 in current dollars, while the standard 360 SKU stayed $300 ever since that price point was introduced, which for holiday 2012 would be $420 adjusted. 2012 was Year 6 for the PS3 and Year 7 for the 360, and their last full year before being replaced. The PS5 is now in Year 6 and it currently goes for $500 for the digital SKU and $550 for the one with a disc drive included.

Granted, the PS3 & 360 did peak in late life, but those were unusual sales curves they both had, and no other system before or after had such belated peaks, not even the Switch. That was probably in large part due to both systems having serious issues holding them back early on. The RROD for the 360 and the high price for the PS3 were both resolved by their respective slimline models, and economic woes caused by the recession possibly favored less expensive hardware like the Wii, DS, & PSP. Perhaps not coincidentally, the 360S and PS3 Slim were both released post-recession. Different generations sometimes face unusual circumstances that shape their sales curves. Right now, the PS5 is going in the opposite direction the 360 & PS3 were at the same point in their lives.

I've long said that even if if lasts only seven years before being replaced just as the PS4 does, it should just barely beat the PS4 simply by merit of not being effectively dead after it's replaced like the PS4 was after it was replaced. If the PS5 does get a protracted life cycle, I could see it selling at least 130M, making it the new #2 home console of all time and the #4 console of any kind ever. If it declines slowly enough I could even see it possibly passing 140M. But surpassing 160M is I think unattainable barring some extraordinary circumstances. It just costs too damn much for a system of its age, and I don't see that changing any time soon. It could take something like Sony eating a loss by issuing deep price cuts for the PS5 within the next year or two just to get sales volumes up combined with a PS6 that's outrageously expensive at launch (like $800+).