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Zippy6 on 20 December 2025
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Panicradio said:

X|S, outside of the US, is barely a thing. I personally don't think that we're looking at a 50:50 split anymore, not even close.

I don't see X|S sitting above +30m, either, and am very much convinced by KeplerL2's claim that X|S shipments are "even worse than I thought".

When I had prepared GPT with various prompts to, at first, construct the framework of how X|S shipment data could be calculated, it was even GPT itself that, calculated with revenue data and price hikes, that found X|S to be more likely sitting around 29 million units shipped in the 'optimistic scenario'.

I know that AI advice has to be taken cautiosly. But I took every effort I could to prepare GPT to run its the final equation/estimation.

X|S, outside of the US, in my mind, just can't be sitting at 17m units sold-through. Europe basically rejected X|S for 3 years straight now, and wether in Oceania nor Asia it's a thing.

X|S, throughout 2025, is barely even selling 2.5m units in total.

I don't think it's plausible that it has sold-through (!) ~15m units since June '23, when Microsoft showed "21+ million units shipped" at a presentation in Brazil, when ONE of that year is 2025 - which won't even reach 2.5m units sold-through, leaving 12.5m units sold-through in 1 ½ years (July '23 until December '24).

Things to note, the 21+ million units shipped in that presentation on June 28th-29th 2023 is likely quoting an internal number from their previous fiscal quarter. I.E it will be 21+ million shipped as of March 31st 2023. VGChartz has the XS selling through 21.2m by the end of March 2023, I'd say based on this it's very likely to be overtracked as of that date. But this is speculation on the actual date of the 21+ million shipped number, even though the end of the previous quarter seems the most obvious answer.

The 100m+ AMD next-gen chip shipments announcement is almost entirely useless because it's not dated at when in the quarter they passed 100m shipments, nor do we know how long between AMD counting a shipment of the chip would that chip be used in manufacturing and the final console be shipped out.

I'd certainly say it's more likely than not that the Xbox is overtracked, but it'll still be over 30m. There's no way they shipped less than 9m over the 33 months following that 21m+ figure. That's just 272k a month average, and sales weren't completely in the toilet yet in 2023. Sell-through will also be a lot closer to shipped numbers for Xbox, for many periods over the last couple of years they've barely kept the things stocked.

USA/Japan estimates should be fairly accurate, I doubt there's a massive discrepancy in Europe either. If Xbox is overtracked then most of it will be from RoW and Latin America. RoW numbers are quite high.