The recent trend is it being 60% down YoY which would land it at 1.7m if that continues. That's what is happening in Japan so far with November being about 60% down but the most recent week in Spain the black Friday week was about 80% down so it looks like it might hold up better in Japan than elsewhere this holiday season and if so around 1.5m seems likely. I voted for 1.5-2m but wouldn't be surprised if it falls a bit short of 1.5m.
Last edited by Norion - on 05 December 2025






