Nintendo Direct set for September 12

[Farsala]

zorg1000 said:

Farsala said:

I am talking sales potential here, IE: 10m+ in one FY.

Mario Kart fits the bill but no 3D Mario, splatoonn, smash, Zelda, AC.

Their FY Forecast for s2 makes sense, keeping that in mind.

You think Nintendo makes their sales forecasts based on the specific number of games that sell over 10 million rather than basing it on the overall library, release schedule, price, production capacity, market conditions (tariffs), etc?

You’re also acting like 15 million is some mediocre number for a console’s first 4 quarters.

First 4 quarters, first 5 quarters

Wii-13.17m, 20.13m

PS4-13.5m, 19.9m

NSW-14.86m, 17.79m

PS5-13.4m, 17.3m

I included 5th quarter because different launch dates mean some of those consoles didn’t have their first post-launch holiday season yet.

It’s also pretty clear that Switch 2 has no problem with demand and whether or not Nintendo exceeds their 15 million goal is dependent on how many they can produce and ship over the holiday season.

Most likely, we will see total shipments over 8 million at the report for the quarter ending Sept 30, in which case they will adjust their forecast to something like 16.5 million and possibly exceed that as well.

Of course they predict on the overall picture, but 10m+ games will have a lot more impact on those predictions, especially in the early stages. Imagine if Nintendo didn't release MK World, just one game missing would be a huge impact imo.

15m is mediocre only in the context of the Switch. Doing about the same as Switch is maybe expected, but everyone wants Nintendo to shoot for more.