Farsala said:
I am talking sales potential here, IE: 10m+ in one FY. Mario Kart fits the bill but no 3D Mario, splatoonn, smash, Zelda, AC. Their FY Forecast for s2 makes sense, keeping that in mind. |
You think Nintendo makes their sales forecasts based on the specific number of games that sell over 10 million rather than basing it on the overall library, release schedule, price, production capacity, market conditions (tariffs), etc?
You’re also acting like 15 million is some mediocre number for a console’s first 4 quarters.
First 4 quarters, first 5 quarters
Wii-13.17m, 20.13m
PS4-13.5m, 19.9m
NSW-14.86m, 17.79m
PS5-13.4m, 17.3m
I included 5th quarter because different launch dates mean some of those consoles didn’t have their first post-launch holiday season yet.
It’s also pretty clear that Switch 2 has no problem with demand and whether or not Nintendo exceeds their 15 million goal is dependent on how many they can produce and ship over the holiday season.
Most likely, we will see total shipments over 8 million at the report for the quarter ending Sept 30, in which case they will adjust their forecast to something like 16.5 million and possibly exceed that as well.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
