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3D Mario will be holiday 2026 IMO ... you may think it odd but Nintendo considers things like the movies as kind of a game release in and of themselves and they want the Galaxy movie to be the main thing people focus on next. Then *afterwards* they will reveal 3D Mario IMO.

It was the same with Mario Wonder, they could have shown that alongside the first movie or with the movie but they didn't. They waited until after the movie's window to unveil the game and released it shortly thereafter.

In part I don't think they want people seeing things like powerups and features in the game which will be new that then aren't included in the movies, they want the movie first. IE: "Why Isn't Elephant Mario from the new Mario game in the Mario movie?". That sort of thing. As weird as it is I think Nintendo takes stuff like that seriously. 

Galaxy movie in spring 2026 -- Mario 3D platformer in November 2026

Would be roughly the same pattern as Super Mario Movie in spring 2024 and Super Mario Wonder in October 2026.