Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Qwark]

Zkuq said:

Ryuu96 said:

I think Putin is genuinely delusional and believes he will take all of Ukraine one day, plus he has basically trapped himself in that position, the Russian extremists are not going to be happy with losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers and thousands of pieces of equipment for half of Kherson, half of Zaporizhia and most of Donbas, they will be salivating for more and Putin has told them that Ukraine is Russia's multiple times, not just half of a few Oblasts but the entire thing. The only one with support who managed to challenge Putin in 20+ years was Prigozhin and his support was on the basis that Putin wasn't being aggressive enough on Ukraine.

Russia still has a notable manpower advantage on Ukraine and Ukrainians aren't likely to return to Ukraine if they don't have any strong security guarantees, as they've already had those "guarantees" before. Russia will just need time to replenish their equipment and go again for Round 3. I think at the very minimum Russia's goal is still to capture Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa, cut Ukraine off from the sea and enable Russia to bring in its fleet. Of course in a ceasefire, Ukraine will also ramp up their defences but they'll do it at a manpower disadvantage and have to do it whilst repairing their country, a horrific birth-rate and an economy that's likely to collapse.

The only worthwhile security guarantees would be NATO troops stationed directly on the frontlines, not hundreds of miles away in Western Ukraine, that's useless, they'll just retreat once Russia attacks again. Outside of NATO, the only security guarantee is if NATO troops are directly in the firing line if Russia attacks again. Ukraine would also need to keep the entire frontline and the whole border with Belarus and Russia mined, with massive trenches across the whole of Ukraine. Keeping thousands of troops still stationed there, because all Russia needs is one hole in the wall for another crazy zerg rush to sit on more stolen territory.

Eh. I think Russia would happily not attack Ukraine again if Ukraine would just bend to the will of Russia - and if not, attack it is. But really, why attack if you can achieve satisfactory results otherwise? But obviously Russia would have to make demands right away, or otherwise Ukraine would regain its strength, so in practice it would probably be an ultimatum pretty much as soon as Ukraine ceded the territory Russia wants. But I guess since Ukraine is definitely not going to cede its fortified territory, this is a moot point.

Anyway, I don't think anything's going to change any time soon. All this looks like much noise about a bunch of nothing, just as expected. It's a stupid game everyone has to play to please Trump. At this rate, the war will be decided by which collapses first: support for Ukraine, or Russia's economy or perhaps internal stability, if Putin at some point feels forced try some riskier maneuvers due to weakening economy.

Ukrain has 2 options, become a puppet state or wage war indefinitely with maybe some short breaks. The biggest question is wether Europe can and want to replace the US and for how long. Historically the continent aside from France wants to please the US at every turn they get. The only way to stop this war is if EU + UK actually intervenes military.