Zkuq said:
I don't think even Russia is really fond of the idea. I mean, I'm sure they'd love to, but they can certainly see it's very costly. I think they just want to be able to project power over Ukraine, which they can't do if Ukraine has actually reliable allies. But if Ukraine is without reliable allies and has to give up its fortified areas? That's another thing. Anyway, I think power projection was the whole point of the war, because Ukraine was sliding closer to the West and NATO membership, and projecting power was only going to get harder for Russia. |
I think Putin is genuinely delusional and believes he will take all of Ukraine one day, plus he has basically trapped himself in that position, the Russian extremists are not going to be happy with losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers and thousands of pieces of equipment for half of Kherson, half of Zaporizhia and most of Donbas, they will be salivating for more and Putin has told them that Ukraine is Russia's multiple times, not just half of a few Oblasts but the entire thing. The only one with support who managed to challenge Putin in 20+ years was Prigozhin and his support was on the basis that Putin wasn't being aggressive enough on Ukraine.
Russia still has a notable manpower advantage on Ukraine and Ukrainians aren't likely to return to Ukraine if they don't have any strong security guarantees, as they've already had those "guarantees" before. Russia will just need time to replenish their equipment and go again for Round 3. I think at the very minimum Russia's goal is still to capture Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa, cut Ukraine off from the sea and enable Russia to bring in its fleet. Of course in a ceasefire, Ukraine will also ramp up their defences but they'll do it at a manpower disadvantage and have to do it whilst repairing their country, a horrific birth-rate and an economy that's likely to collapse.
The only worthwhile security guarantees would be NATO troops stationed directly on the frontlines, not hundreds of miles away in Western Ukraine, that's useless, they'll just retreat once Russia attacks again. Outside of NATO, the only security guarantee is if NATO troops are directly in the firing line if Russia attacks again. Ukraine would also need to keep the entire frontline and the whole border with Belarus and Russia mined, with massive trenches across the whole of Ukraine. Keeping thousands of troops still stationed there, because all Russia needs is one hole in the wall for another crazy zerg rush to sit on more stolen territory.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 19 August 2025
