| trunkswd said:
Here is the slide from AMD's earnings report. Their exact quote is "Strong current console generation with cumulative shipments surpassing 100 million in Q4'24." The key takeaway I see is that it surpassed 100 million sometime DURING the quarter and not at the end of the quarter. The quarter ran from October 1 until December 31, 2024. 100 million is a nice milestone figure, so we are likely talking over 100 million, but under 110 million. At the end of 2024 PS5 was at 75m shipped, while we have XS at 31.99m sold. Lets say there is a 1m gap for a total of 33m shipped for XS. That would be a combined 108 million shipped. As far as Xbox Series having about half of sales outside the US that is pretty typical for Xbox consoles. As of the end of June 2025 the US accounts for 51% of worldwide sales for the Xbox Series. Our estimates show a similar ratio for other Xbox consoles. We have the US at 50% of worldwide Xbox 360 sales and for the Xbox One the US is at 52% of the total worldwide sales. That is why doubling NPD/Circana data for Xbox gets you a pretty good idea of worldwide sales. This would all be much easier if we got numbers from Microsoft, but the only figure we got was from early/mid 2023 when it was revealed XS+X1 = 79m+ and XS= 21m+. That is how we got the 58 million for the Xbox One. That image I've posted below. It was revealed by Microsoft at Big Festival in Brazil, which took place in June 2023. What we don't know is when the data was pulled from. But since the event took place in June 2023 (before the end of that quarter) we are likely either talking May 2023 or possibly the end of the previous quarter, which would be March 2023. I just want to add that yes we could be overtracked, but also could be undertracked like we were with the Xbox One. Either way sales are dropping following the price increase and it will be tough for it to top 40 million (unless we've unertracked it by several million) even if the next-gen Xbox doesn't come out until holiday 2027 or later.
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AMD's Lisa Su herself lumped AMD's Steam Deck into the game consoles unit in 2022:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/03/amd-earnings-q1-2022.html:
Su said that AMD's semi-custom business grew by "double-digits" on a year-over-year basis due to consumer demand for the Playstation 5, Xbox Series, and Valve's Steam Deck.
"Semi-Custom sales grew by a significant double-digit percentage year over year based on strong demand for Sony and Microsoft consoles, as well as Valve's new Steam deck."
"Sales for this game console generation continue to outpace all prior generations, and we expect 2022 to be a record year for our semi-custom business," Su said.
This is in alignment with their Q4 2024 report/chart of revenue that you've referenced above (563 Mio.) and the 100m shipments:
So this number has to include Steam Deck, not just PS5 and Series X|S. At least according to Su's own business statements.
(I claim the "surpassing 100 million shipments" passage indicates 104 million units at best. They would have said "surpassing 105" if it was the case.)
And as far as IDG numbers go, a third party market research firm, even take 2 themselves don't see IDG's numbers as totally reliable.
Strauss Zelnick:
"We are using IDG's projections, which are pretty substantial. So for Gen 9 alone, their view is that they're about 81 million consoles worldwide currently that was at the end of the last year, they project that will rise to 111 million by the end of this year and [175 million] (ph) by the end of 2027. Now we don't necessarily subscribe or not subscribe to those views, but that shows an awful lot of growth. And we do expect a very significant attach rate."
As far as T2 goes, they'd presented another chart in 2024:
This doesn't align with known numbers we got from Sony and worldwide sell-through estimates "as of November 2024".
And frankly, this is no Xbox One situation anymore where 50:50 (US:rest of the world) being the case.
Personally, with data only from first party sources (AMD, Sony) alone, I don't see evidence the Series could sit at 33.27m units sold-through as of June 2025.
Last edited by Panicradio - on 14 August 2025
