Xbox Series sells over 33.5M by 30.09.2025. LT expectations ?

[trunkswd]

Panicradio said:

trunkswd said:

As I previously stated we have Xbox Series estimates at 29.04 million worldwide as of June 2024

This is the point that I am actually getting at [with the gaps] (and agree with Kepler2).

This figure, 29.04m, would mean that, as of June 2024, 50.82% of total global sales for the Series were made outside the US.

I find that to be highly unlikely, when Europe & Japan are basically dead for the Series for at least 22 months now.

On a sidenote:

Don't you consider AMDs first-hand Q4 2024 report of 100 million game consoles sold (to which business unit they do apply Steam Deck sales, too?)

And just for reference; do you calculate Series sell-through numbers by revenue?

Don't get me wrong: I certainly disagree with your estimates for reasons that were perfectly illustrated in the recent NeoGAF topic:

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/xbox-series-x-s-estimated-to-have-sold-37-million-units.1686826/

But I'll be the first to acknowledge your estimates (and eventually apologize) if your estimates turn out to be nearer at truth.

(But I won't take a plain statement from Microsoft "Yup, we sold 35m units!" as fact.)

Here is the slide from AMD's earnings report. Their exact quote is "Strong current console generation with cumulative shipments surpassing 100 million in Q4'24."

The key takeaway I see is that it surpassed 100 million sometime DURING the quarter and not at the end of the quarter. The quarter ran from October 1 until December 31, 2024. 100 million is a nice milestone figure, so we are likely talking over 100 million, but under 110 million. At the end of 2024 PS5 was at 75m shipped, while we have XS at 31.99m sold. Lets say there is a 1m gap for a total of 33m shipped for XS. That would be a combined 108 million shipped. 

As far as Xbox Series having about half of sales outside the US that is pretty typical for Xbox consoles. As of the end of June 2025 the US accounts for 51% of worldwide sales for the Xbox Series. Our estimates show a similar ratio for other Xbox consoles. We have the US at 50% of worldwide Xbox 360 sales and for the Xbox One the US is at 52% of the total worldwide sales. That is why doubling NPD/Circana data for Xbox gets you a pretty good idea of worldwide sales.

This would all be much easier if we got numbers from Microsoft, but the only figure we got was from early/mid 2023 when it was revealed XS+X1 = 79m+ and XS= 21m+. That is how we got the 58 million for the Xbox One. That image I've posted below. It was revealed by Microsoft at Big Festival in Brazil, which took place in June 2023. What we don't know is when the data was pulled from. But since the event took place in June 2023 (before the end of that quarter) we are likely either talking May 2023 or possibly the end of the previous quarter, which would be March 2023.

I just want to add that yes we could be overtracked, but also could be undertracked like we were with the Xbox One. Either way sales are dropping following the price increase and it will be tough for it to top 40 million (unless we've unertracked it by several million) even if the next-gen Xbox doesn't come out until holiday 2027 or later.

Last edited by trunkswd - on 13 August 2025