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If they release a new console 2 years before PS6 it will need to be a completely different value proposition compared to current XBOX Series S/X

Simply not enough time has passed for them to have a generations leap that is affordable enough to justify a purchase. With a small user base and lack of exclusives that take advantage from the extra power I doubt a new console will sell a thing when their last generation purchase was so recent

It will be a Dreamcast scenario for Xbox

The idea of having a compact console to run windows is a good one, although I guess as anything new it can be a hard sell initially and take some years to have more significative adoption