Predict the lifetimes sales of Donkey Kong Bananza

[RolStoppable]

Bananza releases with a number of advantages:

1. It's coming early in the life of a new console.
2. It's published on one of the most desirable video game systems ever.
3. It's a top shelf game...
4. ...that also happens to be in a genre that is lucky to average one such release per year across all gaming platforms.
5. It's Donkey Kong, one of the most recognizable video game characters in existence.

Shipments could look something like this:

4m in CQ3 2025
4m in CQ4 2025
4m in 2026
3m in 2027
2m in 2028
1.5m in 2029
1m in 2030
1m in 2031
1m in 2032

I expect its legs to gradually decline because eventually there will be a new 3D Mario game on Switch 2 which is more likely to become the first choice for new Switch 2 owners when it comes to 3D platformers.

Unsurprisingly, I voted for 20m+ in the poll because that's what my numbers add up to.

For reference, the low-advertised Switch 1 port of Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze reached shipments of 4.62m by December 2022. Kirby and the Forgotten Land's LTD shipments by March 2024 were 7.52m, which marked a new record for the Kirby series; estimates put it above 8.0m by March 2025.