| Soundwave said: The math holds up fine when 90%+ of the third party games on the Switch 2 are going to be Game Key cards, that already tells you all you need to know. The total Switch 2 physical library is going to be overwhelmingly a bunch of Key Cards, then you'll have the Nintendo published games and that's about it. Only a few 3rd parties are going to bother with putting their game on a cart, and they're not evil or bad for doing that. It just makes sense. The Key Card exists because 3rd party publishers don't want to pay the damn $8-$10 for the cartridge and they're correct in not wanting that. In 2025 when game budgets are skyrocketing, you can't expect publishers to subsidize even $8 a copy ... that money is important to their bottom line. Key Cards let Nintendo still have a physical presence. Even Nintendo themselves is not willing to subsidize the cost for physical, we're seeing physical games have a $10+ premium over digital Nintendo software. You want the cart? Well then you can pay $70-$80 a game for Nintendo games, that's just how it's gonna be. Digital is more profitable, even Nintendo knows that. A 30% cut from 3rd party sales for example would net Nintendo billions of dollars of extra revenue on software just from 3rd party fees alone quite probably for the course of a generation. That's a huge windfall for Nintendo and Sony to be able to not only get their standard licensing fee but another fat chunk of revenue for essentially doing nothing? That's fantastic margin expansion, every business lives for that. Nintendo has long relationships with retail in Japan that's the main reason they are sticking with having a foothold in physical, but it will diminish as time goes on and the fact if Nintendo is going to cry about a digital future, they'll be crying all the way to the bank. Playstation 6 and Switch 3 (and whatever the next XBox is if it even releases) will be digital only and both Sony and Nintendo will make more money in the long run that way. Switch 2 is probably the last major console that will support physical media and it will be kinda shitty support frankly. A ton of Game Key cards and Nintendo physical games with a mark up. So for those who really are all about that, enjoy it while it lasts (and also enjoy paying $10 more per game in many cases). GameStop probably won't even exist past 5 years, it'll be a minor miracle if they can make it that far. The writing is on the wall and there's no huge incentive for Nintendo or Sony to want a physical/digital mix, they again stand to make more money in a digital only future. Physical had its time, at this point it's just becoming a farce. Like what? Cyberpunk and like 2 other games are slated to be physical releases on the cartridge itself? And the Nintendo ones are like $70-$80 a pop for physical? The writing is on the wall here. |
While digital is more profitable when you look only at an individual copy, it's actually more profitable to offer both digital and physical formats for games because the total volume of game sales increases tremendously. Like I said in my previous post, physical still accounted for ~70% of copies sold for games that are offered in both formats. It's something that you have ignored in your rush to defend anti-consumer third party decisions. The same logic of offering games in both formats obviously also applies to royalty fees. Physical vs. digital isn't a zero-sum game, because the removal of the physical format doesn't necessarily result in an additional sale for the digital version; it's actually quite common that the result is the loss of a sale.
So far there have been no credible news that physical games will cost $10 more than digital ones in the USA. A price hike on physical only exists in Europe, so why is that? It's because European retailers have regularly undercut the digital prices, so now their typical undercutting will make digital and physical games cost about the same. That's how things work in the real world.
The main reason why Switch 2 still offers physical games is obviously that the majority of Nintendo games sold on Switch 1 were on game cards. Only a stupid company would turn against their own customers.
The use of game-key cards will likely become less prevalent over time. Game-key games will have a hard time becoming million sellers regardless of the strength of their IP. We've already seen this happening with all the code-in-a-box and partial download games on Switch 1. Every few years the industry happens to bet on the wrong horse; the industry sure wants to force an all-digital future, but that doesn't mean that gamers will go along with it. Other such failed endeavors include killing of the used games market, forcing always online, replace handheld gaming with mobile gaming, and most of all, trying to end Nintendo's run as a console manufacturer.
Lastly, it's so laughable that you portray $70-80 for physical games as a downright terrible thing. You know why? Because the offered alternative of $70-80 for digital games is much worse.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.







