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Norion on 25 April 2025
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DroidKnight said:
Norion said:

Initially sure though what do you think will make up for the covid boost down the line? Cause I struggle to see the Switch 2 matching the Switch 1 let alone outselling it cause of that. Another thing is the only major region with notable growth potential is Europe and I don't see it matching its level of success in NA and Japan, especially the latter due to exports getting cracked down on. Also it seems you have its sales by year mapped out for this so could you share that?

All I have is just some initial ranges I played around with. After playing around with a few different sets of ranges I went with this one.  My guess falls into the upper area.  As far as slowly making up for the Covid sales, I'm taking into account that moving into an all digital world is going to sour users of other platforms that prefer physical media.  Though it may not be a huge percentage, even a small percentage of 4%-8% is a large chunk of gamers.  

Another variable I've been looking at is the Xbox user base. I don't think it just's going to disappear, they're going to go somewhere if Xbox isn't going to do anything to keep them on their devices.  Some will go to PC and Playstation, but moving over to Nintendo is going to offer the most value once exclusive games and pricing are factored in. 

Another area that allows for growth is the hardware capabilities of the Switch 2. CoD, Halo, Gears, Destiny, GTA?, Sports(Football, NBA, Fifa),Racing type games are now going to be able to run on the platform (I'd expect 3rd party developers to take full advantage of that). It can also entice the consumers that only purchase a console to play just the one game/series to now have a 3rd option.

The digital part mostly depends on if the PS6 will have a disc drive option which I do think it likely will though that is at least somewhat up in the air. Even if it doesn't the physical situation on Switch 2 not exactly being ideal so far could reduce the impact though it could gain some physical diehards down the line sure.

I expect most of the remaining Xbox user base to eventually migrate to PC due to factors like a portion of the game library carrying over with Play Anywhere and so far that's probably already the case for the ones that have migrated considering that the PS5 is not making up for the decline of Xbox at all with it being a bit behind the PS4 worldwide. Even in the US where it's 7% ahead of the PS4 the Xbox Series is about 20% behind the Xbox One so far. Playstation will still get a significant amount especially going forward due to it now getting Xbox games and a lot of people preferring the console experience though I don't see many choosing to make the Switch 2 their main platform since big games will run much better on the PS5 and especially later on with the PS6 and a lot of those games will either skip the Switch 2 or be a late port. It should be by far the least common option former Xbox users pick to switch to.

It will get a lot more big games than the Switch got though so you're completely right about the hardware capabilities helping it out. The Switch 2 will be more viable as a main platform though the gap between it and the PS6 will still be huge. Also for the image I definitely lean towards the low end of the range since I really doubt its peak years will be that high due to its price. Even with covid the Switch only had a couple years above 20m and the DS was really cheap so it wasn't too tough for a lot of parents to buy three of them for all their kids. Since I don't expect the Switch 3 or whatever to come out till late 2033 I think the peak years will be somewhat lower and 2032-2033 higher.