UPDATE: Will the Switch 2 Have Legs?

[Xxain]

curl-6 said:

Xxain said:

Did I say DS to 3DS drop?(Honest question). CGI-Qualities estimates are mine as well. I do not believe that NINTENDO is going to capture lightning in a bottle TWICE ... in a row. No other console has ever done that with the same "gimmick". Then we have to think about how many of those people who bought Switch because of the cool factor; Do they still use it? Why would Switch 2 pull these people in? Let's look at PS2 to PS3; We know SONY fucked up but in some sense you could look that 90mill PS3s as "actually" PS fans(loyalist). That lost 70mill are users who were not loyal to PS(went to xbox)or those who just bought PS2 because of DVD or Madden

It takes a very unique set of elements to have a console go over 130mill. 

We know from Nintendo that the large majority of Switch owners are still active users.

In the examples you list like PS2-PS3 or DS-3DS there was always some massive shift that caused sales to drop; so far there is no such shift in the market going from Switch to Switch 2.

It's entirely possible that such a shift does occur, but so far there's nothing.

Here's is one thing that I don't think anybody is considering. Switch also has the edge that unlike traditional home consoles, households tend to have more than one. With Switched rumored to be $400, I highly doubt that families will be repeating that trend especially the economic path that America is headed towards.

Brother. Even if SONY did not fuck up on the PS3 it still would not have reached PS2. Nintendo Wii and XBOX 360 would not doubt would have still taken sales aways. The rise of PC gaming would still have taken away sales. Those things still would have existed with or without. When Switch came out it was the only thing doing what it did. Now we have dozens of these high powered handhelds. Both SONY and MS are hard at work on their own handhelds. Its more than just one major thing. All these little things could add up and instead of Switch 2 at 130mill its not 119mil.