Jumpin said:
I could, but it wouldn’t be my honest opinion. Unless something like “anything between about 30 million and 330 million†is a legitimate answer. I don’t have any kind of a “gut feeling†here on this one the way I did with the Wii and Switch - because I saw those and almost desperately wanted them. I give it 30 million on the low end with a few assumptions: first, that probably around 20-50% will happily upgrade based solely on just continuing with the platform they’ve invested in. And on the high end, that a large number of people who may have played Switch as a family console or the console of a friend or roommate, now has the opportunity to get a new and up to date one of their own. Of course, these numbers are arbitrary with limited education in the estimation at best. But I’m reasonably confident the Switch will fall within that 30-330 million range. I’m not trying to be difficult out of any kind of spite or disdain for the question… this is more caution resulting from 20 years of work involving projections and metadata analytics where when I get something wrong, I’m sat in a boardroom with a bunch of stakeholders debating how the projections were so wrong as an indirect way of debating my competence. Nothing more than good old fashioned mental trauma. :) |
I didn’t realize that your work took you into that realm, and I definitely understand the caution. Especially since we’re talking about Nintendo. Thanks for chiming in with at least a window. 30-330 million sounds like a joke, but knowing Nintendo it really isn’t. Maybe your low is a little low and your high is a lot high, but the sentiment is 100% accurate. I’m sure after the Direct it will be fun to see someone make this thread again to get a new pulse on the projections.
Essay Pro